Thursday, July 12, 2012

Mumbai Page updated upto Saturday Morning..Vagaries Forecast translated to Gujarati   in Saurashtra Press..see Page.


Changing Topics..Something Totally different..Mysterious Sounds Made by the Aurora Borealis...See Space News Page...


Outlook for the weekend: Fri 13th/Sat 14th/Sun 15th:



The Monsoon Axis has shifted to the Himalayan Foothills. For the regions South of the axis, it means a weak Monsoon Condition. 
Weak monsoon conditions for the interior Peninsula and the west coast, and eastern coastal regions.


Rain fall will decrease substantially in the regions South of the Punjab/Haryana/Delhi/UP W Bengal line. 
Interior Mah, Interior Karnataka, Saurashtra remain almost without any meaningfull rains. (See Aurangabad district Page)


It also translates to a very heavy rainfall to the Sikkim and NE States, hampering relief work. Punjab regions too get heavy rains on Friday.


Outlook For Mon 16th/Tues 17th/Wed 18th:
An UAC is likely to move into Orissa on Sunday, and move NW thru the Orissa/East Vid/Chattisgarh region on Monday, 16th. Seeing the situation, the monsoon axis may slide down South (upto Rajasthan) again by mid next week. West Coast trough possibly gains from Tuesday 17th.


Meanwhile, the MJO seems to be "holding" till the 22nd July at least. Could expect a Vortex off Mah.coast around Wednesday. A low off the Orissa coast could be expected in the Bay late next week.
Shall monitor and keep posting.


In Pakistan, the Monsoon will bring Precipitation in the North. Lahore can get heavy rain on Friday evening night. 
Karachi will have a cloudy weekend with light drizzles in some parts. Monsoon has moved into the region (See Current Page Map). Strong SW winds likely next 2 days.
Very strong SW dust raising winds are likely in Southern Sindh on the weekend.




Week End City Forecasts:


Mumbai:( maintained the same as put up yesterday,added Sunday today)
Friday: Partly cloudy morning, and 3/4 (a couple heavy) showers post noon. Rain Amount 8.30am Friday-8.30am Sat: 10-15 mms. 


Saturday: Decreasing Rains. Hot sunny spells, with short cloudy periods. Few showers with rain amount till Sunday 8.30am :upto 10 mms.  


Sunday: Sunny spells in the morning and partly cloudy later. A couple of Showers. Rain amounts 8.30am Sunday -8.30 am Monday: 5-10 mms.


Pune:
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: What do i Forecast ? Nothing to shout about, Same. partly cloudy and light drizzles with rains upto 5 mms /day.


Surat: Also nothing much to cheer for the weekend. Partly cloudy with some showers, upto 10 mms /day.


Delhi: 
Friday, Delhi gets a few showers heavy in some parts, cloudy day. From Friday night, Delhi and Haryana get good rains till Mid day Saturday. 
Decreasing rains from Sunday.


Bangalore: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Nothing to cheer for the city...light drizzles for the weekend. Rains around 5-10 mms/day.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Rajesh,

i have taken up this lucky charm thing in a serious manner. may be if you initiate a poll (long due) in vagaries, might just be the trigger for a low in Bay(apologies if i have streched the idea to far). I am sure atleast Pavan and SSEt will support my lucky charm ventures

Regards, Ananth

Abhijit Modak said...

Yes very much needed all activity like vortex, trough, Bay low. As Situation is very grim of Madhya Maharashtra region ! I think today's 100 mm in just 5 hrs might be an good indications that now North Konkan's time has come for it's typical or usual 200 to 300 mm rains in 24hrs span in coming july days!

Abhijit Modak said...

Some local changes noted here. Some high levels CB towers like formation seen at high levels and moving east to west dir. And low levels clouds continues from SW side ! So evening/ night hosting an thunderstorm !

Pavan said...

Sure mr ananth,
eagarly waiting for bay low but it should nt mve towards orissa and wb and a low whch is very similar to the 1 whch formd in june last week of 2007 and whch crosd the coast betwn kknada and m'patnam and it raind very heavily in the regions which are reeling undr drought today i dont think martwada is any more under drougt only west central mah and int karnataka are dry, if low follows the route m'patnam/nellore-kurnool/kadapa/cdurga-raichur/bellary/mahboobnagar-koppl/gadag/dwad/belgaum-kolhapur/satara/sangli/pune these and sik realy require rain nw and it wil be a dangerous situation if the low moves towards telangana/vid/c'garh/eastmp/nrth mp/ as it hapnd last year and even in 2010

rajesh said...

abhijit/nt (reply to sms):there was rain and loud thunder LAST NIGHT at 9 pm here..(vagaries had much earlier predicted thunder for Wed, if you recall)..These are typical clouds forming due to convection and are not reaching very high, its till 6 kms, while these in real conditions can manage 12 kms !
Inter cloud transfer of current due to 2 level formation can spark off lightning nand consequent louder thunder (as its nearer ground).
Thats why i had imagined thunder whilst forecasting.

rajesh said...

pavan: sorry for late reply to this. No, there is no connection with places touching 40c, as these cities reach 40c every year, whether MSN is weak or strong...
low is my estimate, not on any model yet (i think)..shall give my views at 10/30

Vivek said...

Some rain (2-4 mm) in the morning and a similar amount in the afternoon in Gurgaon. Its been overcast all day though.

GSB said...

Today's all India rainfall is at around 6mm. This is the first slackening after the pickup that we saw last week. Hope as @Rajesh sir has said with the strenthening of the west coast trough from 16th onwards and formation of low from the bay rains should pick up in the last two weeks.

We need Chris Gayle sixes i.e a few days of over 12mm rainfall all india to even come close to filling the deficit.

Shitij said...

Today the sky was partly cloudy. Light rain occur during the early morning hours.

Shitij said...

What is positive and negative vortex? Which vortex creates more rainfall?

Anonymous said...

Can anyone explain to me what this monsoon axis really means, i have seen you use this term many times but never quite understood what it means,pls explain

Abhijit Modak said...

Today pleasent weather conditions here at Badlapur, Thane District. Full day overcast with constant drizzles to medium rains around 20mm rains noted. Max temp was at 28d C. Hoping for same nice weather for weekends too !

Vivek said...

As predicted on Vagaries of Weather, very good rain in Delhi/Gurgaon (40mm or so)!

Started this afternoon for about 1hr.

Hopefully we will get some more rain tomorrow.

rajesh said...

shitij: Thanks for Surat reports.
The function of the negative vortex is to pull energy in, while the positive vortex spins energy out.

Vivek: Thanks for the feedback. Actually it is very usefull and helpfull for me to know the outcome of forecasts.In fact a report says good rainfall in Gurgaon. That's why i can give forecasts if feedbacks are regular..
BTw, Lahore too had good precipitaion alongwith Faislabad, with 40 mms.
Saturday will be less as per vagaries forecast..

anonymous: Please identify yourself and where you are from..discussions become easy..
you can interpret the monsoon axis on the MSLP chart..it is shown as an extended trough in North India with a low in Pakistan Punjab...otherwise also see in the 925 hps level winds..to the south of the axis the winds are westerly and easterly to the north...

and a page for Pune ? I'm sure you would appreciate that writing even a small para takes a lot of effort and time, and of course study and deep analysis..anyway, i do give a regular forecast for Pune. Shall try to put up a page, or join in with Mumbai..
BTW please identify yourself -:))

rajesh said...

junaid: did you find the Panvel readings on the Mumbai Page..they are put up daily...

Anonymous said...

so about the weather... i ve checked this 4 seasons forecast website www.sunpreview.com

rajesh said...

svt; Sunday will not be too rainy or a hindrance..i hope the forecast (Sunday's) put up will help you organise your function..let me know if you need more help..

GSB said...

@Rajesh sir.. I have noticed that the cloud motion wind chart is indicating 701-950 hpa vectors moving towards the Indian western shore. (see for e.g 13jul2012 12:00 CMV ) This is the first time this season I have seen a change in their direction. Is this significant and what does this indicate. I'm sorry if this sounds like a layman question but I have absolutely no knowledge of what this kind of map represents...

Shitij said...

From the past few days rainfall occur mainly in the morning hours. Rainfall amount may be around 1-5mm. After that weather becomes partly cloudy with some sunny spells.

svt said...

As I told you before about function on our terrace on tomorrow. How is tomorrow evening forecast looking? Are you sticking to your forecast of 5-10 mm rain. Any upgrade?

rajesh said...

svt: Almost same forecast...more details: 3/4 showers post noon, between 4pm and 8 pm..amounting to rainfall upto 10 mms...
let me know..

Abhijit Modak said...

Today 3 to 4 sharp heavy spells noted at Badlapur. Around 30mm noted.

Vivek said...

Light showers in Gurgaon today. Before noon. 5mm at best.

Thanks,