2009 saw the lowest rainfall (all India) in several decades. End of July in 2009 was at an unbelievable deficit of -47 %. It ended up with an end of season deficit of -28%.
For an on date comparison of 2009, see Vagaries' Blog of this date here
On this page, Please move on to 16th July (2009) write up.
Check the rainfall figures for Gujarat on this date...havn't seen such figures in years..
1972 was also a drought year with the season's deficit at -24%. End July was at -31% in 1972.
The worst ever for drought ever in India was in 1877 when the monsoon deficit was at an ashtonishing -29%.
Last few days, TN, AP and parts of Interior Karnataka got the much needed precipitation. As Venkatesh points out, it has reduced the deficit in the region and provided the much needed moisture in the interiors.
In TN, heavy rainfall was recorded in Alangayam (dist Vellore) 11, Paiyur AWS (dist Krishnagiri) 9 and Vaniaymbadi (dist Vellore) 9, besides many station between 3-9 cms. With some rains, Chennai AP has crossed the 100 mms mark and is at 109 mms.
In AP, Chittoor (dist Chittoor) 13, Rajahmundry (East Godavari dt) 11, Avanigadda (Krishna dt) 10, Palamner (dist Chittoor) 10, Shriramsag.pocha (dist Nizamabad) 7 and several other stations below 7 cms.
Though Karnataka interiors did not recieve such heavy rains, at Bangarpet (Kolar dt) 8, Karwar 7, Manki (Uttara Kannada dt) and Hoskote (Bangalore rural dt) 6 each. A begining has been made with rains between 1-3 cms. Bangalore city got some rains, managing 12 mms, pushing up the season's total to 27 mms.
An off shore trough extends along the Eastern Coast of india, from the "low" over the NE States (the East end of the Monsoon Axis)crossing the coast into Interior TN. The trough encouraged and aided the formation of Thunderclouds in the Interiors of the Southern States due to drop in pressures at various levels.
The susequent rainfall along the trough was not predicted by any model, and formed as a result of the Eastern end of the Monsoon axis getting strong.
Substantially reduced rainfall in TN and Karnataka.
S.I. Karnataka will get some showers (10-15 mms) and Interior TN west of Chennai will get precipitation upto 15 mms.
As the off shore trough off the west coast starts strengthening along South Konkan /Goa, medium/heavy precipitation expected in the region.
West Vid could get light to medium showers in the day.
The off shore trough along the west coast extend upto N.Konkan, while, and UAC embedded in the Eastern coast trough moves West from Chennai (inland).S.I. karnataka gets light rainfall.
Heavy rain/Thundershower in Nagpur on Tuesday night, extending into Wednesday morning.
Reduction in rains in Karnataka and TN. An off shore vortex could form off the Mumbai coast on Wednesday. Stations along Konkan will get between 100-150 mms.
Precipitation upto 15 mms expected in Vidarbha on Wednesday. South Interior Mah could get rains upto 30-40 mms.
Saurashtra region does not get any meaningfull rains on these 3 days.
Rains in N.Pakistan will decrease from Tuesday.Light rains along Sindh Coast will prevail till Tuesdaywith Karachi getting light rains.
City Forecasts for Monday16th/Tuesday17th/Wed 18th:
All City Rain Amounts 8.30am-8.30am next Day:
Monday: Cloudy morning. A couple of sharp showers in the afternoon. Passing showers in some parts in the late evening/night. Rain Amount: 20-25 mms
Tuesday: Overcast morning, with 2/3 showers in the day. Rainfall increasing by evening. Heavy rains at night. Rain Amounts: 40 mms.
Wednesday: Cloudy day with frequent showers, at times heavy in the afternoon. Heavy rains with thunder on Wednesday night. Rain Amount: 60 mms.
Satellite Towns like Panvel and Navi Mumbai could get heavier rains on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly crossing 100 mms on Wednesday.
Pune: Monday partly cloudy with light drizzles.
Rainfall shows a slight increase from Tuesday, with a heavy shower expected in the evening/night.
Wednesday: Overcast cool day. Several light/mdium showers with rain amount around 20-25 mms.
Surat: Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with a few showers in the day. Rain amounts 10 mms/day.
Wednesday: Overcast with heavy showers with thunder. Increase in rain amount to 40 mms.
Delhi/Haryana: A thundershower in some parts on Monday. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms. Tuesday/Wednesday will be almost dry and partly cloudy.
Monday: Could get a shower by evening.
Tuesday: A few showers in the daytime, with rainfall amounting to 10-15 mms.
Wednesday: Cloudy with light drizzles.
Monday: Light showers possible with a cloudy day. Rain upto 10 mms.
Tuesday: Cloudy with light rains in the day.