Friday, July 06, 2012

Forecast for the Week End, 7th/8th July :

Saturday/Sunday will see some heavy showers moving along the Northern Monsoon Trough. Showers are expected in UP, Jharkand, Delhi and moving into Punjab and Haryana.

Thunder showers are also expected on Saturday/Sunday in Pakistan Punjab. Heavy showers could be expected to lash Lahore.

However, the off shore trough remains, though not strengthening, and the West coast of India will get medium rains from South Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast.
Interior Mah, North and South interior Karnataka get light rains on the week end.

Saturday or Sunday evening Nagpur may get a thundershower. Vidharbha region could witness heavy rain in some areas.

Saturday: Partly sunny to cloudy, with some Medium/Heavy post noon showers. Rain Amount: about 25-30 mms.
Sunday: Partly Cloudy with sunny spells. A few showers in the day, heavy in some parts of city.  Rain Amount: 30-35 mms.

Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy to cloudy. Light drizzles/rain in some parts of city. Rain Amount upto 5 mms/day. Pune seasonal total from June 1st is only 42 mms.

Delhi: Heavy Thundershowers on Friday Night and early Saturday Morning. Rain Amount 25-30 mms.
Cloudy weather on Sunday with thundershowers in parts.

Nagpur: Thundershower possible on Saturday/Sunday evening. Saturday may rain upto 25 mms.

Surat: Some early pre noon showers on Saturday. Rain Amount on Saturday: upto 25 mms.
Cloudy Sunday with light showers during the day. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.

Bangalore: A mild thundershower possible on Saturday evening. Could get rains between 5-10 mms. Otherwise Weekend will be cloudy with light drizzle in some parts.

The SW Monsoon has moved into Parts of Saurashtra, East Rajasthan, UP and HP today, 6th July.

As the Monsoon moved into East Rajasthan, Jamwaramgarh got 90 mms, Sanganer 80 mms and Shahpura 67 mms. In its advent, Monsoon has poured over HP also. Yesterday,  Kangra 152 mms and in Utteranchal, Chamoli got 180 mms, Nainital recieved 135 mms.Today Karnaprayag recieved 88 mms and Chamoli 70 mms.

Regions in the rear of the advancing monsoon recieved very heavy rainfall. Jabalpur measured 197 mms.
We had also mentioned of the Kanpur-Lucknow region to get heavy rains in vagaries' forecast on Wednesday. Kanpur recieved 148 mms, Manakpur 130 mms, Bansgaon 110 mms.

Heavy thundershowers lashed parts of Delhi today (Friday) evening (continuing at 8 pm as per report). A hazy day kept the high at 37c today. After reading 35c till 5.30 pm, the rain brought the mercury down to 24c by 6 pm. 
See pic of Delhi storm sent by Rajiv (taken at 8 pm)..on Inter Active Page
Panipat,Sonepat and Rohtak are also recieving heavy rains.

The trough in the North runs From Pakistan (990 mb) Punjab thru North Rajasthan across Haryana, UP (994 mb), Jharkhand and into W.Bengal.

The Monsoon is set to advance into Delhi, Haryana and Punjab by tomorrow (Saturday).


Anonymous said...

sir please what is the forecast for in the next comming weak.
what is the cuurent water level in lakes

Pavan said...

Lost all hopes for pune! All areas surrounding pune like ahmednagar, solapur latur beed, satara even places like indapur and baramati receivd today aws showing 102mm for solapur but just drizzle in pune i wil never ask when pune wil receive rain, its more hot here in pune than blore hope the wait ends til monday just optimistc on ur weekend forecast

Rajesh said...

anonymous: Just put up sat/sun wee's initial 4 days orecast will be put up sunday night. BTW which place are you from and which forecast do you want ?
Pavan: solapur total till 6th june is only 70 mms.
Next week?lets see..not very encouraging as yet, mentioned of the northern trough getting active..but things can change -:))

Rajesh said...

pavan: pune got 6 mms today.

Rajesh said...

anonymous:if you mean Mumbai lake levels, they are regularly put up and updated on Mumbai Page..

Shitij said...

Today also the weather was completely cloudy and city has received less rain than yesterday.

Anonymous said...

yes sir absolutely i m from mumbai forgot to mention.
sir when will the west coast trough strength increase

Anonymous said...

@Pavan, i too have given up on Pune, seems this once in a lifetime drought (i hope i never see it again), i bet we might not even get 20 cms entire season. better start saving some water, there is nothing left to save though

svt said...

Thanks Rajesh. Yes, I'll remind you on wednesday. :)

Anonymous said...

At last delhi getting rains ,more than 60mms in the past few hours.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

What does it mean that the northern trough is getting active? Does it mean that it will rain the north and not in the west? My question is : are these things a zero sum game? Just trying to understand how the monsoon works.


Rajesh said...

anonymous: I have explained in wednesday's blog, that the Northern trough gets active, and the off shore western trough gets weak. It happens as a sequence, bcoz the monsoon trough being north cannot host any systems from either seas. and, the SE winds from the Bay rush moisture into the Eastern parts of India, and into the region North of the trough along the Northern plains. So, the predicted rainfall on Friday..BTW, if you can identify yourself good, or mention where you are from..i do not enjoy chatting with anonymous people -:)
What is a "zero sum Game ?"

Vivek said...

Hi Rajesh,

Thank you for your response on the northern trough. My name is Vivek and I am based in Gurgaon.

Your website is excellent. Thank you for the effort you put in to maintain it.

A zero sum game is a term from game theory/economics. In a zero sum game one person's gain is another person's loss. My question was if rain in the north was at the expense of rain in the west.

BTW most economic interactions are not zero sum. All trades benefit both parties in the trade. Why else would they enter the trade?

You can read up zero sum games

Thank tons again,

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,
Its been almost 35 days and we are yet to see BB1, are conditions so adverse that this will be the first monsoon where we might not see low in low leave alone a deep depression. (i remember 2002 was a bad July year)

Regards, Ananth

sset said...

Vikek - Most of weather predictions are based on statistical models based on simulations (taking in account currrent weather patterns - presume 16-20 factors and simulating same for future tenor points) or can be based on approximations - analytical models based on regression analysis.

As far as we know east and west may not have negative correlations - there are instancs when both are volatile or opposite. Anyway Rajesh sir can explain better.

Rajesh said...

vivek/sset: Relation between Northern Monsoon axis in the UP/Delhi region and West coast rainfall is always there...weakens the off shore trough.

ananth:Yes. Numbering the Bay system is almost forgotten..its been so long now -:))

Vivek said...

Thank you Rajesh and sset.

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