An UAC has formed over Chattisgarh/East MP. and the low pressure extends into the 850 hpa, 700 hpa and 500 hpa levels.
By Monday 9th, the UAC will persist at 700 hpa and 850 hpa and track westwards.
Monday 9th : Heavy rains in MP, Chattisgarh and commencing by evening over North Konkan. Rains also medium intensity over UP. Medium rains in adjoining Vidarbha and Orissa.
The UAC will travel westwards. A classic case of an upper level trough detatched and forming south of the "main" sea level monsoon trough.
By Tuesday, the UAC may track over MP/Gujarat, with heavy precipitation over North Gujarat and West MP, and North and South Konkan and South Gujarat coast.
Torrential rains on Monday night/Tuesday in the Indore/Ujjain/Dewas regions.
Heavy rains over the Western Ghats in Maharashtra.
The system moves into Kutch on Wednesday, and weakens.The SW Monsoon set to adveance into Kutch.
The UAC will weaken subsequently, but on Wednesday/Thursday, the precipitation can move into coastal Sindh and Karachi on a lesser scale.
Meanwhile, rainfall decreases in the rear of the UAC.
SWM can move into Karachi by 10th11th July.
Some rain expected in Karachi on Tuesday/Wednesday, when the day temperatures can drop to 31/32c.
Sukkur can also expect cloudy weather on Tuesday/Wednesday. Maybe very light drizzles in some areas. But day will be hot at around 42/43c.
The Monsoon axis in the North has now strengthened, and with the Low embedded, we may see heavy rains along the UP plains and Utteranchal.
Nepal will get heavy rains from Wednesday thru Saturday.
Almost negligible rains in interior Maharashtra and Karnataka (Mon thru Wed).
Monday 9th: Cloudy skies getting overcast by afternoon/evening. A couple of passing showers getting frequent and intense by evening. Night heavy showers expected . Rain Amount: (8.30 am Monday-8.30am Tuesday): 35 mms.
Tuesday 10th: Overcast skies with fairly frequent showers. Some prolonged and heavy with gusty winds. Flooding expected during some heavy showers in the afternoon/evening.
Rain amount: (8.30amTuesday-8.30amWednesday): 60 mms.
(Panvel and Thane can expect very heavy rains during Tuesday, and rain amount may be around 75-80 mms).
Wednesday 11th: Frequent showers till sfternoon. Skies brightning by evening, with decreasing rainfall.Rain Amount: 20 mms.
(see Sunday rains on Mumbai Page v/s Forecast).
Monday: Cloudy, with 2/3 light showers in the day. Rain amount: 5-7 mms.
Tuesday: Overcast, with increasinf rains in the day. Frequent light rain and cool day at 25c. Rain Amount: 10-12 mms.
Wednesday: Decrease in rains.
Monday will be partly cloudy with showers , more in evening.
Tuesday: Overcast with very frequent showers with some heavy falls. Rain Amount should be 60-70 mms.
Wednesday: cloudy with 3/4 showers. Decreasing by afternoon/evening.
Delhi: A couple of showers in some parts of Delhi Region. Rain Amount: 10 mms
Rains decreasing to almost zero Tuesday/Wednesday. Warming up to 38c in the day.
Mixed forecasts are coming for the MJO wave. Seeing the various models and projections, I would personally put it (in my words): an extension of the "neutral" MJO phase till the 18th of July. Getting into weak phase after the 21st of July.