Sunday, July 08, 2012

See Mumbai Page for Tuesday Morning Rainfall for City and Panvel/Thane...

An UAC has formed over Chattisgarh/East MP. and the low pressure extends into the 850 hpa, 700 hpa and 500 hpa levels.

Next?
By Monday 9th, the UAC will persist at 700 hpa and 850 hpa and track westwards.

Monday 9th : Heavy rains in MP, Chattisgarh and commencing by evening over North Konkan. Rains also medium intensity over UP. Medium rains in adjoining Vidarbha and Orissa.

Tuesday 10th:
The UAC will travel westwards. A classic case of an upper level trough detatched and forming south of the "main" sea level monsoon trough.

By Tuesday, the UAC may track over MP/Gujarat, with heavy precipitation over North Gujarat and West MP, and North and South Konkan and South Gujarat coast.
Torrential rains on Monday night/Tuesday in the Indore/Ujjain/Dewas regions.
Heavy rains over the Western Ghats in Maharashtra.

Wednesday 11th:
The system moves into Kutch on Wednesday, and weakens.The SW Monsoon set to adveance into Kutch.
The UAC will weaken subsequently, but on Wednesday/Thursday, the precipitation can move into coastal Sindh and Karachi on a lesser scale.

Meanwhile, rainfall decreases in the rear of the UAC.


SWM can move into Karachi by 10th11th July.


Some rain expected in Karachi on Tuesday/Wednesday, when the day temperatures can drop to 31/32c.
Sukkur can also expect cloudy weather on Tuesday/Wednesday. Maybe very light drizzles in some areas. But day will be hot at around 42/43c.

The Monsoon axis in the North has now strengthened, and with the Low embedded, we may see heavy rains along the UP plains and Utteranchal.
Nepal will get heavy rains from Wednesday thru Saturday.

Almost negligible rains in interior Maharashtra and Karnataka (Mon thru Wed).

City Forecast:
Mumbai:
Monday 9th: Cloudy skies getting overcast by afternoon/evening. A couple of passing showers getting frequent and intense by evening. Night heavy showers expected . Rain Amount: (8.30 am Monday-8.30am Tuesday): 35 mms. 


Tuesday 10th: Overcast skies with fairly frequent showers. Some prolonged and heavy with gusty winds. Flooding expected during some heavy showers in the afternoon/evening. 
Rain amount: (8.30amTuesday-8.30amWednesday): 60 mms.
(Panvel and Thane can expect very heavy rains during Tuesday, and rain amount may be around 75-80 mms).


Wednesday 11th: Frequent showers till sfternoon. Skies brightning by evening, with decreasing rainfall.Rain Amount: 20 mms.


(see Sunday rains on Mumbai Page v/s Forecast).
Pune: 
Monday: Cloudy, with 2/3 light showers in the day. Rain amount: 5-7 mms.


Tuesday: Overcast, with increasinf rains in the day. Frequent light rain and cool day at 25c. Rain Amount: 10-12 mms.


Wednesday: Decrease in rains.



Surat: 
Monday will be partly cloudy with showers , more in evening.
Tuesday: Overcast with very frequent showers with some heavy falls. Rain Amount should be 60-70 mms.
Wednesday: cloudy with 3/4 showers. Decreasing by afternoon/evening.


Delhi: A couple of showers in some parts of Delhi Region. Rain Amount: 10 mms
Rains decreasing to almost zero Tuesday/Wednesday. Warming up to 38c in the day.

Mixed forecasts are coming for the MJO wave. Seeing the various models and projections, I would personally put it (in my words): an extension of the "neutral" MJO phase till the 18th of July. Getting into weak phase after the 21st of July. 


20 comments:

sset said...

Hi Rajesh - How will be Navi Mumbai/Mumbai tommorow?? Have some urgent medical work tommorow. As of now raining non-stop!!!

sset said...

Bangalore - rain clouds gone with the wind!!! Continous tree loss, loss of lakes, no efforts for tree plantation - massive serious drought.
Wonder what is government doing to mitigate this????

As told by Puttana - weather division of Bangalore. In Bangalore, wind blowing at a high speed is a common phenomenon during the pre-monsoon months. This year, the wind has marked its presence only in July. Meteorology department officials say these winds are the harbingers of rain in the coastal areas. The officials say as it is only now—peak monsoon season, calendar wise—that the wind has picked up speed, it indicates that the city is going to receive low rainfall.

B Puttanna, director, Meteorological Centre, Bangalore, said Bangalore is in the rain-shadow area. He explained that the wind that travels upwards on the other side of the mountains travels downwards in rain-shadow areas. He said if gusty winds did not stop soon, it would mean the city would witness failed monsoon.
He said wind blowing at a speed of more than 40 kmph is called jet wind and brings in a lot of dust. He said Bangalore’s tree cover has come down drastically and there are no barriers for wind.
He said the city can get rain only after the wind ceases, adding that the wind pushes away the rain-bearing clouds.

Puttanna said interior Karnataka will get rain only if an upper air circulation generates in Andhra Pradesh or Bay of Bengal. Puttanna said this year, rainfall has been less than 50% in the entire country, except in areas like Karavali, Bagamandala, Malnad and other coastal areas.

He said if the upper air circulation does not bring rains, the meteorology department would have to declare that monsoon failed this season.

He said groundwater had already depleted in peripheral areas of the city because of deficient rainfall.

sridhar said...

different models are showing different mjo status/forecast..???

rajesh said...

sset: heavy rains possible tomorrow afternoon/evening...

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

Is there a possibility of a low off AP coast in Mid July, or is it too early to bank on it

Peninsular India is having its worst monsoon since 2002.

Regards, Ananth

Abhijit Modak said...

Here at Badlapur, Thane District nice pleasent weather today. Full day dense cloudy with continous rain sometime heavy also with thunders. Max temp 26d C here. Around 50 mm must easily noted till now. @ Rajesh Sir. Whether Barvi dam belt, Badlapur notched to 700mm mark till today from 1st June 2012 !

Ron said...

heavy rain in deonar for the past half hour...

sset said...

Ananath - not only like 2002, even 2011,2010 - rains eluded south interior regions. Call for desertification. I am not weather expert - but with my own eyes seen climate change and nature destruction of Karnataka-Bangalore hence made these comments.

Meanwhile as Abhijit mentioned-Mumbai/Navi Mumbai is having gracefil weather- raining,misty-clouds,dense green trees,waterfalls - entire Mumbai looks like hill resort!!!
Navi Mumbai - PandavKada waterfalls in full glory with central park as beautiful as Hyde Park London. Ofcourse with Krishna temple and golf course at foothills, artist village what more a person requires.

Anonymous said...

Chances of drought in the entire northwestern india including delhi-ncr thats whats im watching now. So delhites ready for more water shortage.
My estimation for DELHI
JULY->160-170mms
AUGUST->180-200mms
SEPTEMBER->70-90mms

My estimation for CHANDIGARH
JULY->260-290mms
AUGUST->210-230mms
SEPTEMBER->110-130mms

My estimation for MUMBAI
JULY->650-720mms
AUGUST->490-540mms
SEPTEMBER->400-440mms

My estimation for KOLKATA
JULY->310-340mms
AUGUST->350-365mms
SEPTEMBER->210-230mms

My estimation for DHARAMSHALA
JULY->550-600mms
AUGUST->650-700mms
SEPTEMBER->390-435mms

Anonymous said...

The Low pressure as per the IMD report is now at NW MP and adjoining UP, should track westwards through the night and enter into Rajasthan. Rajesh sir do you think, once it enters Rajasthan it will rain as much around North Konkan? Normally it rains the best when the Low is around Central MP or there abouts.

Nagpur Star said...

Rajesh,It seems Nagpur is in severe bad patch. Its just raining around Nagpur but not in Nagpur. Dont know what the Lake situation here in Nagpur.

NT said...

The Mumbai Airport shows wind direction to be NNE !! Don't know how could that be the situation. I thought with the LOW it should be SW, with the LOW pulling in air from over the sea.
Also, it seems to indicate CB clouds forming over Mumbai. Bizzare, as one woudl generally expect more 'Monsoonish' rain with low clouds and not Thunder showers.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset. Yaa. Every Monsoon Mumbai/Navi Mumbai, Thane and other suburbs of Mumbai has lush green covers with waterfalls in mountain ranges as all this above area comes under North Konkan area so enjoy their shares. But if you cross western ghat then Nashik, Pune , Satara, Sangli,Kolhapur cities which also comes under Deccan plateau like Bangalore are having deficient rains this year. For Ex.Pune this time has manage just 51mm from 1st June 2012. So Konkan areas cities comparison with Deccan plateau cities is not valid. And geographical conditions or planatation or trees & grass types or soil are different of Konkan & Deccan plateau regions. Now from Navi Mumbai Pune is just 120kms away so if we travel via Mumbai- Pune expressway we can see till Lonavala all lush green & waterfall but when western ghat crossed then all picture is changed with no greenary or even soil is not wet in Pune this year . So whole Interior Maharashtra & Interior Karnataka are having same conditions of less rain than Normal,

Ron said...

have there been any low pressure in west central Bob this year...its quite surprising...

rajesh said...

junaid: Please read Saturday's post "Yellow headlines" I have mentioned that Panvel and Thane readings are NOW ON MUMBAI PAGE>> please see on MUMBAI PAGE...all readings are regularly put up as and when i recieve them ...

sset said...

Correct Abhijit. Now as Anonymous has mentioned- entry of low into Rajisthan/Gujarat can bring landfalls similar to north konkan - true as we have seen last 5years Rajisthan/Gujarat have consistently received excess rains but rains have eluded interior penisular India -why? Why do winds blow away rain bearing clouds over Bangalore - impact of trees loss is one reason but certainly there are other factors?

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, the Mumbai MET website shows the total rainfall in Mahabaleshwar at 253 mm as of yesterday. This is just 10 inches of rain. Do you think this is correct information?

If it is right, do you remember Mahabaleshwar (which gets 3 times the rainfall as compared to Mumbai) getting such low amounts of rain? The defecit comes to a whopping 85% !! Not sure if this can be recovered in the current season.

rajesh said...

nt: Mahableshwar rainfall from 1st June till 10th July is 976 mms.
Highest on date in state is gaganbavda at 1835 mms.
Just tallying and consulting Pradeep for all india amounts and putting up latest all India figures by evening.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh sir. And also give rain figure for Barvi dam area, Badlapur , Thane District. I think Barvi dam must have notched to 700mm mark till today 8.30am .

rajesh said...

abhijit: Yes Abhijit. Going to put up Barvi dam and another request for Nagpur dams also has come..am outside and busy now, but shall surely put up tonite...