As as on 10.10 pm it is pouring here at Mahalaxmi. Several reports are put up on the FB page...Northern suburbs report good rains today..and around 40-45 mms mms recorded in Northern Suburbs..till now.
Mumbai rain figures (8.30am) will be put up on Mumbai Page by tomorrow morning ..11.30 pm figures : Scruz 64 mms till 11.30 pm tonite.
Pic sent by Abhijit from Badlapur on Inter active Page.....
Modokai? Its a new concept, just discovered in 2004 by a Japanese team led by T. Yamagata (that included a prominent Indian climatologist, Dr Venkata Ratnam), and its effects are still being studied. With Rajan's expertise and guidance, Rajan and myself have prepared an introduction to this new event..namely
"Indian Monsoon: What’s brewing in the Pacific is more likely a Modokai than a normal El Niño."...published on Rajan's Take here....those interested in meteorology, must read through this article.
As put up by Vagaries on Sunday, 15th, the UAC from the Bay crossed into Orissa and tracked into Vidharbha on Monday.
Nagpur too, got the forecasted showers on Sunday and Monday, with 45 mms on Monday alone, and 40 mms in the day on Tuesday.
The Vortex (off the west coast) mentioned has formed on Tuesday, 17th , and resulted in the forecasted rains (for Monday) in South Konkan and Goa, with Tadpatri getting 130 mms, Panjim Goa recieving 116 mms in 24 hrs. Ratnagiri measured 106 mms, Rajapur 93 mms, Canacona and Quepen 90 mms. Ratnagiri had 62 mms again in the day on Tuesday.
So, the vortex is active off S.Konkan.
Now, will it move to N.Konkan as we had anticipated for Tuesday night/Wednesday ?
Should move, as the trough is holding on, and precipitation was fairly reasonable in Mumbai from Tuesday evening, 44 mms in Scruz and 26 mms in Colaba till 8.30 pm Tuesday.(Vagaries' put up estimate 40 mms till 8.30 am Wednesday).See Mumbai Page for daily actual readings
Almost all citiy forecasts put up on Sunday were upto the mark for Monday and Tuesday. Chennai recieved 12 mms against estimate of 10-15 mms), Bangalore AP got 8 mms (10 mms) and surat and Pune are expected to get rains on Wednesday.
The forecasts put up on Sunday valid till Thursday (below in previous blog) regional, and city wise, holds good. (It may be appreciated that Vagaries' forecasts are put up after a lot of effort, hence requires minimum changes, unless absolutely required!)
Again, Vagaries' estimate (forecasted on 12th July) low will emerge in the Bay around the 20th. It could be around the central Bay region off the Orissa or North AP coast. Tracking will be NW, maybe along the monsoon axis "corridor". MJO holds on till around 25th July...
Readers well versed with Vagaries' style of forecasting , will remember having mentioned that a low or system always would tend to track along the Monsoon axis corridor, wherever it is located.
No change in Pakistan forecast (till Thursday). Sindh will be dry except for light rains along Karachi coast.
Hyderabad will be hot, with day temperatures around 40c, with hot winds. Sukkur will also be hot, around 42/43c, and hot winds. No rainfall expected this week.