Pradeep Has just sent his Latest June End ALL India Rainfall Totals with Rankings..and his clarifications and comparisons with last year shows his immaculate precision and hard work and Efforts...See Inter Active Page..Thanks Pradeep.
The "hot spots" for heavy rains are: (All terminologies fror rainfall as per Vagaries' nomenclature (put up on Current weather Page).
Monday thru Thursday Rainfall Estimated Distribution Map (for at a glance viewing):
Vizag and South of Vizag on Sunday night into Monday.
Heavy Thundershowers in Interior maharashtra (Barring East Vidharbha) on Monday thru the night, and Konkan including Mumbai. Very Heavy rains on Monday night in Nasik region. Heavy rains in Konkan on Monday
South Gujarat coast lashed by heavy rains on Monday night into Tuesday.
Konkan and Coastal Karnataka can receive Very Heavy rains on Tuesday.
Heavy rains lashing Nagpur and surroundings on Wednesday. Western MP and Eastern UP could get medium rainfall on Wednesday.
NE states will get heavy rains, but light rains in W Bengal with little rain for Kolkata. No meaningfull and significant rainfall in NW India and Delhi for this period. Like mentioned, Delhi could get first monsoon showers around 8th.
Thursday sees an overall rainfall decrease from these regions.
In the meantime, all the NW of India and Pakistan wait for the rains.
For Pakistan, Sindh coast should get the first rains from around 7th/8th July. Later progress has to be seen.
Meanwhile hot, as Islamabad reaches 43c and Sukkur 44c. Expecting 45c in a day. Hottest 45.5c at Sibbi.
Monday:Thundershower in the afternoon/evening with gusty winds. Rain amounts 45-50 mms.
Tuesday: Cloudy and showers. Occasional Thundershowers in the afternoon. Rain amount 45-50 mms.
Wednesday: Occasional showers and a typical "Monsoonish "day. Rain amounts 40 mms.
Thursday: Decrease in Rainfall.
Monday: Getting cloudy with thundershower by afternoon/night. Rain amount 15 mms.
Tuesday: Thundershowers by afternoon, heavy in some parts of city, with temporary flooding. Rain amount will vary, but some areas can get upto 50 mms.
Wednesday: cloudy with a couple of showers in some parts.
Surat: Heavy rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday. Rains in 24 hrs could measure 75 mms as per Vagaries' nomenclature.
Decrease in rainfall on Wednesday.
Very Brief July Estimate:
The First 10/12 days of July will see the Monsoon Covering the rest of the Country. Due to the delay, the NW parts could be in the deficit.
The MJO remains "neutral" till around mid July and favourable from mid July till 24th July. ENSO remains Neutral. IOD may get slightly -ve, possibly.
A couple of systems from the Bay are possible as the MJO strengthens a bit. This could bring precipitation to W Bengal, orissa, Eastern Coast, Central India and Interior Maharashtra. Konkan and coastal Karnataka could get their normal share of July rains as the off shore trough will persist.
Due to favourable situation in July, AP could get normal precipitation.
If, one of the systems from the Bay deviates towards the South, we can exoect precipitation in interior Karnataka nad South Maharashtra.
Otherwise too, pentrations from the West coast could boost up rains in these regions, when there is an UAC off the Karnataka coast.
UAC forming in Gujarat, which is possible after a system, or independently, could boost Gujarat rains, which may be slightly deficit in July.
Monsoon will move into Pakistan around 10th July, with coast getting some precipitation.
Late July, we can expect the rains to pick up in the Central and Northern regions.