Sunday, July 01, 2012






Pradeep Has just sent his Latest June End ALL India Rainfall Totals with Rankings..and his clarifications and comparisons with last year shows his immaculate precision and hard work and Efforts...See Inter Active Page..Thanks Pradeep.


Looking into the next 4 days of the coming week (Monday thru Thursday), we see the Monsoon active, with heavy rains in North AP, adjoining East Vidharbha and South Konkan, and Medium Rains in Rest of Interior Mah. (Madhya Mah, Marathwada) and Konkan.



The "hot spots" for heavy rains are: (All terminologies fror rainfall as per Vagaries' nomenclature (put up on Current weather Page).
Monday thru Thursday Rainfall Estimated Distribution Map (for at a glance viewing): 







Monday: 
Vizag and South of Vizag on Sunday night into Monday. 
Heavy Thundershowers in Interior maharashtra (Barring East Vidharbha) on Monday thru the night, and Konkan including Mumbai. Very Heavy rains on Monday night in Nasik region. Heavy rains in Konkan on Monday
South Gujarat coast lashed by heavy rains on Monday night into Tuesday.


Tuesday: 
Konkan and Coastal Karnataka can receive Very Heavy rains on Tuesday. 


Wednesday
Heavy rains lashing Nagpur and surroundings on Wednesday. Western MP and Eastern UP could get medium rainfall on Wednesday.
NE states will get heavy rains, but light rains in W Bengal with little rain for Kolkata. No meaningfull and significant rainfall in NW India and Delhi for this period. Like mentioned, Delhi could get first monsoon showers around 8th.


Thursday sees an overall rainfall decrease from these regions.
In the meantime, all the NW of India and Pakistan wait for the rains. 


For Pakistan, Sindh coast should get the first rains from around 7th/8th July. Later progress has to be seen.


Meanwhile hot, as Islamabad reaches 43c and Sukkur 44c. Expecting 45c in a day. Hottest 45.5c at Sibbi.


City Forecasts: 


Mumbai: 


Monday:Thundershower in the afternoon/evening with gusty winds. Rain amounts 45-50 mms.


Tuesday: Cloudy and showers. Occasional Thundershowers in the afternoon. Rain amount 45-50 mms.


Wednesday: Occasional showers and a typical "Monsoonish "day. Rain amounts 40 mms.




Thursday: Decrease in Rainfall.

Pune:


Monday: Getting cloudy with thundershower by afternoon/night. Rain amount 15 mms.
Tuesday: Thundershowers by afternoon, heavy in some parts of city, with temporary flooding. Rain amount will vary, but some areas can get upto 50 mms. 
Wednesday: cloudy with a couple of showers in some parts.


Surat: Heavy rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday. Rains in 24 hrs could measure 75 mms as per Vagaries' nomenclature. 
Decrease in rainfall on Wednesday.


Very Brief July Estimate:


The First 10/12 days of July will see the Monsoon Covering the rest of the Country. Due to the delay, the NW parts could be in the deficit.


The MJO remains "neutral" till around mid July and favourable from mid July till 24th July. ENSO remains Neutral. IOD may get slightly -ve, possibly. 


A couple of systems from the Bay are possible as the MJO strengthens a bit. This could bring precipitation to W Bengal, orissa, Eastern Coast, Central India and Interior Maharashtra. Konkan and coastal Karnataka could get their normal share of July rains as the off shore trough will persist.


Due to favourable situation in July, AP could get normal precipitation.


If, one of the systems from the Bay deviates towards the South, we can exoect precipitation in interior Karnataka nad South Maharashtra. 
Otherwise too, pentrations from the West coast could boost up rains in these regions, when there is an UAC off the Karnataka coast. 
UAC forming in Gujarat, which is possible after a system, or independently, could boost Gujarat rains, which may be slightly deficit in July.


Monsoon will move into Pakistan around 10th July, with coast getting some precipitation.
Late July, we can expect the rains to pick up in the Central and Northern regions.


54 comments:

Anonymous said...

Slight drizzle in Pune, but very puzzled the cloud movement was from east to west infact North East to South West . Is this normal monsoon or convection rains ?

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir.Totally Mess situation here at Badlapur city,Thane District at moment !! What should have occur in First week of June is occurring in First week of July ! High Levels Easterly Grey Clouds are approaching with some lightening and current Wind Direction too from East.. And Drizzling too started now. Whole June month Badlapur saw Arabian sea side South westerly rains.. But 1st July started with Easterly side Bay of Bengal branch rains !! So I think this is very Rare event for July Month. Actually in July Low Levels South Westerly Clouds should lashed with heavy rains through out the day for North Konkan belt.. But Pre- Monsoon like conditions thundery Easterly Rains appearing now!!

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, I agree with Abhijit, my own observations looking at the lightning map right now is that this is a first week of June kind of a map i.e. pre-monsoon. Also, I don't see the UAC at 700 hpa in the map put up by you in interior Maharashtra (something that was mentioned in your blog 2 days back). Just wondering what is causing all this thundershower activity over Maharashtra?

I happened to see the Aurangabad page today, must complement you on this kind of a service. Will be most useful to the farmers in the interior regions - where Weather forecasts and guidance mean much more than academic interest.

sset said...

satellite picture shows dense cloud formation over Mah/Guj - clouds coming from BB instead of AS. Is that what you have mentioned Abhijit?

sset said...

Rajesh what is causing no rain over Bangalore? Full day it was windy - is that reason clouds are blown off?

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset. Yes.. But whether they were from BB I doubt as they were looking like local convection ! And from today morning ifself weather was changed here at Badlapur. Morning started with dark blue sky then high levels white clouds started to appear from east dir then by afternoon grey clouds at high levels where stationery and in all that process no winds at all ! And by evening 7pm drizzling started from easterly grey clouds. Around 5mm rain noted in 2hrs.

rajesh said...

abhijit: why are you so confused ? when a monsoon current re-organises after a "break monsoon", it always shows thunder tendencies. Normal for a situation after a break. In fact, 5 days back, I had put up in the forecast for Mumbai, to watch for towering thunder heads in the eastern sky. You must have read it then ? And once these form anvils they travel from the east, and the lower clouds are formed due to the draft of the cumulo nimbus clouds...convection takes place in the east (of Mumbai).Dont be mistaken that these clouds come from the Bay..tip for reading vagaries..read in between lines, as wordings are prepared carefully and precisely...trying my best to be accurate and honest with my forecast.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thanks for clearing the doubts. What made me confusion that, this year early June days failed to prouduce Easterly Thunderstorm which are known as pre monsoon thunderstorm ! Even Pune & Nashik belt which are prone for thunder activity in late May & Early June period but this year there also no such activity got developed due which June 2012 average of Pune also got affected which is just 35mm ! Pune actually gets around 75 to 100mm due to easterly Thunderstorm in early June but this year it was totally failure ! Even Badlapur right from 6 June got Southwesterly Rains. So got confused why such event which not formed In June but now Happening in July !

emkay said...

Pressure back to 999 at 1400 hrs in Mumbai after going up to 1000 hPa.

Abhijit Modak said...

Worst July weather condition's is been experienced here at Badlapur !! Today Max temp touched to 35°C at 2pm , Humidity : 75% & Heat Index : 40.3°C. In June too the max temp was not exceeded beyond 34 d C! So really bad start for July.. Conditions are looking like May month here !

emkay said...

Going by the definitions reg. undulations in Atmospheric pressure given here http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Will_it_rain_when_barometric_pressure_drops the present drop in Mumbai is not rapid enough to suggest a thundershower ? at most indicates a weather system in vicinity

Anonymous said...

Pressure as shown at the Mumbai Airport (NOAA web-site) has now fallen to 997. So I guess this is quick enough to suggest a storm in the next 4-5 hours (a fall of 3 in 2-3 hrs.)

rajesh said...

To All: Check pressure at Vagaries' Readings Page...996 at 4.15pm Monday

Anonymous said...

A fall of 5 hpa since yesterday morning and 3 hpa since today morning at the Vagaries station, significant. Looks like there will be a strong storm over Mumbai later in the evening or tonight. Some window shuddering booms coming up!! Bad weather coming up (actually in our current case, one would have to say - good weather coming up) - bad would be a fair and clear weather!!

Abhijit Modak said...

Here at Badlapur, Thane District Bunch of Black clouds arrived from North East direction at 3.30pm then started to get dark, few drops fallen and at 4.30 again Clear Blue Sky !

Ganesh said...

Moderate Rains with ocasional thunder at Barc. Spot on Rajesh :)

Anonymous said...

Rajesh, i think you might want to contemplate about scaling down rains for Mumbai and Pune. as per BBC reports, it might not be more than a minor drizzle for Pune on Tuesday and Wednesday. A big let down after such a build up :(

sset said...

Rajesh may be correct. Satellite picture at 6pm shows dense mass of cloudes engulfing Mumbai and entire coastal Maharashtra.

Bangalore again windy but not a single drop of rain? Why is it windy?

Abhijit Modak said...

Thundery develop here at Badlapur, Thane District from SE side with lightening & thundering and also one lightening grounded in nearby area with huge sound but rained just drizzle around 1mm only !

Anonymous said...

light rain with lightning at borivali west. no thunder as yet

GSB said...

Heavy rainfall in Thane!! 10mm in past 20 mins. This was preceded by thunder and the familiar orange pre- monsoon evening sky. Hope this bodes well for all of us!!

@Rajesh sir. Spot on again sir!!

Anonymous said...

now in borivali too moderate to heavy rain has started.

Ganesh said...

what rains..storm like conditions and wind

Abhijit Modak said...

Now Heavy rains with Lightening(Also lightening strikes) & Thundering started here at Badlapur city, Thane District from last 10 mins from South Side.

Anonymous said...

look at the 8.10pm mumbai airport metar report

"VABB 021440Z 14024G34KT 0200 R27/0600 +TSRA FEW009 SCT018 FEW030CB OVC080 25/24 Q0998 NOSIG"

winds gusting at 34knots (62.9kmph)
visibility 200 - 600 meters
current conditions "heavy thunderstorms and rain"

GSB said...

With todays 19mm rainfall in the past hour or so Thane has touched 400 mm this season. Long way to go...

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur city, Thane District noted almost 40mm of rains in past 1 hour.

Shitij said...

Yesterday Surat received 33mm of rain. No other cities of South Gujarat received rains yesterday. Today the humidity and temperature was on the higher side as compared to previous days.

NT said...

Torrential rains for the first 20-25 mins at Juhu, followed by Heavy rains for around 40 mins. Lots of Lightning, not much thunder though. It will be interesting to see how much SCZ notched up today evening. All very quiet though now.

Rajeshbhai, you were spot on. Fantastic forecasting.

sset said...

Is Arabian sea off Maharashtra coast in for a cyclone? Cyclic motion of clouds?

svt said...

Personally think that, on Wednesday some parts of Mumbai could get more than 100 mm of rainfall.

Anonymous said...

this forecast model agrees with SVT

"http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/mumbgfs.png"

whats your opinion Rajesh sir?

Anonymous said...

UAC seems to be moving away from mumbai coast...

sridhar said...

Monsoon doesnt seem to be very happening this year.. weak MJO...Not many major lows happening of west coast.....action just concentrated over north east.....wonder if mumbai could be hugely deficit this year..? general forecast seems very bleak.....???/

sridhar said...

rains so far seems more like a 'hit and run' case.. unlike the normal being there doing there...case..:)

rajesh said...

anonymous/svt/shridhar: yes, as someone mentions, and as explained, the trough is weak and erratic, and not supportive of an UAC..not stabily supporting one...and as for the rains expectations..i stick to the Tuesd/wed forecast for Mumbai..the 3 days forecast put up on Friday seems to be going along well(see Mumbai page for comparison)..
for new readers, it should be noted that unless a forecast, specially a city forecast, is changed on vagaries, the last one remains valid..
putting up all india review and forecast for next 4 days tonite..usual time 10.30pm (with Mumbai lake levels)

NT said...

I am at Parel and I can see a storm building up from the office. Lots of low dark clouds rushing in from the SW direction and moving at a rapid pace. The top of the Worli TV tower got covered in the clouds some time back. Looks like the afternoon thundershowers forecasted for today will start soon in this part of the town.

Bhavik said...

Tomorrow Morning expect Mumbai to be flooded

Anonymous said...

Why Bhavik? What is happening? Do you know something that some of us here in Mumbai don't?

Bhavik said...

Anonymous ... My conclusions are based on Dew Point, Pressure and Humidity chart for last 24 hrs ...

Bhavik said...

also this sat image looks encouraging -->
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Bhavik. If your prediction goes true then good.. But sat image changes rapidly in few hours ! Today after 3pm low level black clouds entered Badlapur from South with strong gusty winds then drizzles episode continued and some medium intensity rain noted at 4pm but no lightening & thundery . After 5pm only cloudy now. And some atmosphere changes too noted, again very clear visibility, can see 30kms away western ghats mountain ranges from our terrace.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Satellite image showing dense thick black cloud cover North Konkan region right from 3pm and also looking up at sky it looks like Heavy Rain may start at any moment ! But from 3pm till until yet only drizzles noted !! So what are the factors or reasons that is preventing to give Heavy Rains even after dense thick black cloud cover whole North Konkan region??

Pavan said...

Not even a single drop of rain in pune clouds running north north east from sw uac/circulation is beng formd across north kokan south gujrat coast saurastra kutch may get heavy to very heavy rainfall veraval porbandar dwarka bhuj jamnagar may get benifitd by this and we punekar just bloging and looking towards the sky, 'see the faith this is the season when human hates silver lining'

Anonymous said...

Cloud tops have touched -60 degrees over Mumbai and surrounding regions. Looks like it might be a stormy night.

GSB said...

No rain in Thane today inspite of the rain like conditions with black thick clouds from sw and ne directions. Hope tonight it rains...

Shitij said...

Right question Abhijit Modak and GSB I also want to ask same question from Rajesh sir. Despite of heavy cloud cover and other favourable conditions why its not raining in Surat?

Anonymous said...

For the first time today the mumbai airport metar is now showing existence of "cumulonimbus" (CB) clouds. til now it was showing "towering cumulus"(TCU) or "Cumulus congestus". So now the rain should increase and also the possibility of thunder and lightning.

"VABB 031610Z 16008KT 2200 -RA SCT010 SCT018 FEW030CB OVC080 26/26 Q0999 TEMPO 1500 SHRA"

Anonymous said...

also the mumbai radar is showing more "yellow" areas!!

svt said...

Raining heavily in Dadar for last 1 hour. Forecast of rains of over 100 mm for next 12 hrs looks good.

Anonymous said...

Rajesh sir, for a change your Pune estimate was off mark :( . no rains just chilly winds and more winds.

NT said...

Continuous moderate / light rain in Juhu / Vile Parle area since 9:00 PM.

BTW this blog has registered 50 Comments!! Vagaries should raise the bat :-)

Abhijit Modak said...

Here at Badlapur 50kms from Dadar, in Thane district Moon glares coming out from clouds at moment!! Just short spell occur at 4pm & 8pm only.

Anonymous said...

the forecast that agreed with SVT and predicted heavy rains in mumbai is now showing much less rain than it showed in the morning.
check it out!!

http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/mumbgfs.png