A day beyond the original forecasted date of 3rd/4th June (by Vagaries in MW), With good rainfall for the 3rd day running, and favourable factors like OLR and depth of SW winds, the SouthWest Monsoon Moves into Kerala on the 5th. Check SWM advance Map on Current Weather Page.
Amongst the rainfall in the State today: Ernakulam 67 mms, Kozhikode 58.6mms, Hosdurg 52mms, Vadakara 49 mms, Kudulu 47.4 mms, Quilandy 41.2 mms and Kannur 38.7 mms.
In the Western Ghats of Karnataka, Agumbe recieved 97 mms of rain. In coastal Karnataka, Karwar measured 63 mms and Mangalore 62 mms and Honavar 39 mms. Interiors were mainly devoid of rainfall. More to the North, Panjim Goa notched up 73 mms.
As a result, with more rains next 24 hrs, Monsoon can move into Coastal Karnataka by 6th night.
Further push into Goa and South Konkan by the 8th, and Mumbai will get the Monsoon onset by the 12th/13th of June. Subsequently, SWM may stall beyond 20N (around Dahanu).
A weak MJO phase is forecasted in our seas from the 16th of June. Normally, a weak phase is expected to last between 14-21 days.
Studying this event, and an anticipitated unfavourable OLR after 17th June, it seems the SWM will remain as a weak current in the regions where it has set in, and go into a "weaker" phase after the 16th of June.
I do not foresee the SWM advancing beyond S.Gujarat Coast till the 20th at least. Further advance into MP and Gujarat Saurashtra can be after the 29th of June.
Delhi could expect the SWM around the 30th June.
Impetus into Pakistan Sindh region will be in the 1st week of July, with Karachi getting the pre monsoon showers in 1st week of July.
With the Bay almost silent, Southern Regions of Bangladesh may see a sudden slack in rains, and only the Northern most parts will get showers this week.
First hand reports of pre monsoon showers today (Tuesday Daytime) have been coming in from Mahableshwar, Ratnagiri, Goa, Kolhapur and Chiplun. A very hot and stuffy(record breaking)night for Mah. tonite (Tuesday nite).
Mumbai will get its pre-monsoon showers on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Rain amount could be around 7-10 mms. Day will be warm and humid at 35c with the minimum on Wednesday morning at 30c. (I have mentioned earlier, though there are no records fo highest minimums available, my records show 30c as the highest minimum ever for Mumbai).
Panvel also may recieve its much needed relief showers on Wednesday afternoon. With gusty winds, i expect a heavy shower in some areas. Minimum in Panvel on Wednesday night will be 26c.
Pune too will get thundershowers by afternoon, and could measure upto 20 mms of rain.
Orissa was HOT today!
Bhubaneshwar has set an absolute record on Tuesday, 5th June 2012, by recording 46.7c. Its an all time high for the capital of Orissa, the previous being 46.5c in 1972 (22 May). Balasore reached 46.0c.
In neighbouring AP. Gannavaram was 46.1c.