The SWM would now re-activate in the existing areas.
But, the SWM may take "advantage" of this marginal strengthening. As the MJO starts strengthening, and the pressure starts dropping, the SWM advance would commence into Saurashtra and Gujarat (7th/8th July), and in the North, Delhi may get its first Monsoon showers around 8th July.
SWM may move into Rajasthan and cover the entire country by the 10th of July.
Even if July rains are normal, It may be possible that the June deficit may remain, and may not be recovered.
ENSO continues in the neutral stage, though the SST warming has spread more in the last 15 days. Warm anomalies now extend across most of the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and along the west coast of South America. The ocean is more than 1.0°C above average in some areas.
Latest SOI is -11.
An UAC at 700 hpa is seen over interior Maharashtra as on Friday. The effect of this will be:
2. Sunday Evening/Night: Heavy thundershowers over West Vidharbha and adjoining North AP. Rainfall around Hydersabad expected.
3. Good precipitation in North AP ,including Hyderabad, and rainfall by evening in South Madhya Maharashtra and N.I. Karnataka.
City wise Week End Forecast:
Pune: Saturday/Sunday: Partly Cloudy with light drizzles in some parts.
Surat partly cloudy on Sat/Sun. Likely to get the heavy rains Monday night.
Delhi: Hot around 42c, with low temperatures around 32c. No Monsoon advance this weekend !
Bangalore: Not much rain.The weekend will be cloudy and light drizzles in some parts. Days will be around 29c.
Major cities June rainfall v/s estimate will be put up tomorrow. Also July estimates for cities.