There is no hindrance of a low "sucking" in the SWM away from the Indian Coast. In fact, the existing low has already faded from sea level and has become a "favourable- for -the-monsoon" UAC !
The SW winds are strong enough to bring in the monsoon, they have been since the lasy 2 days, and are now blowing at an optimum 30 knts in the central Arabian sea.
The SWM should then move into Kerala! What's the delaying it now ? It should (have) hit the Kerala coast by today, 3rd June. That's what Vagaries has been harping on since the last 10 days ! What's stopping the SWM now ?
After a thorough detailed scanning of all the factors, and studying the parameters individually, (it was puzzling), I think I have hit upon a minute and to an extent a significant parameter that is playing spoilsport.
A para meter that could have been overlooked by many a forecasters.
The SST off the Somali Coast is still above normal ! The Somali current factor, one may recall, has been stressed by Vagaries in almost all the MWs. And it seems it is creating the hindrance to a SWM advance.
The role this factor plays has been explained in many a MWs. The SST off the Somali coast should be cooler, much cooler by at least 10c, from the Central Arabian Sea. As the cool winds blow from the Somali Coast region, they sweep over the warmer Arabian Sea, and form mass clouding, Monsoon cloudings.
In fact, this small but significant factor is playing on. As the latest SST map shows, the Sea temperature off the coast is still above normal by around 1.5 to 2c.
Without detailing, I would say it has created an un favourable wind shear in the Arabian Sea.
Now, something to cheer up. The SST off the Somali Coast can, in the present conditions (without any system interference) cool down fast, maybe in the next 36 hrs !
Presently, it needs to drop by another 2/4c, and it IS possible to happen sooner than expected. Look out for mass cloud formation off the coast, indicates cooler air condensing quickly.
Therefore, the Monsoon has been "trying" to creep into Kerala as a weak current for the last 2 days.
Yesterday, Kerala stations recieved between 4 cms- 8cms of rain and today the rainfall was:
Vadakara, Vaikom, Enamackel 3 cm, Thrissur, Kudulu and Chalakudy and Kottayam 2 cms each, Cial kochi, Piravom and Kodungallur 1 cm each.
Meanwhile, the SWM has advanced into Meghalaya and assam and a few other NE States (see advance map on Current weather Page).
Tezpur 16, Karimganj 15, Mushalpur (AWS) 14, DRF 12, Cherrapunji 11, Motunga 10, Biswanath chariali(AWS) 10, Badatighat 8 and Beki-mathanguri 7