Friday, June 15, 2012

Mumbai Lakes Position on Mumbai Page.. Draw able Level ..@90 days stock..Mumbai weekend forecast on Mumbai Page

Observations as on Friday Morning:
Re-read MW-8 (below) and view map to get  easy reference of today's narration :

Developments seem to be almost "in Line" with  reference  to the Map put up on MW-8  and the narration " What Next" (of Wednesday's MW-8).

1. The UAC mentioned in the Arabian Sea has moved a bit towards the NW, and lay off the Dwarka coast. As a result, the off shore trough remains tilted west wards (away from the konkan) as on Friday.

UAC is expected to fizzle out by Saturday morning, returning the trough back towards the coast by 16th (see map). Later, by 17th, we wait for the "new" UAC to get embedded in the trough.
Rainfall will be heavy around the NW Saurastra coast till Friday night. 

Cloudy weather moving into Sindh coast and Karachi on Friday.

2. SWM is expected to pick up in the N.Konkan region from Saturday, once "normalcy" returns.
Saturday Night/Sunday would see the rains increasing, and Mumbai getting the forecasted rains and possibly the SWM advent.

Forecast for Mumbai remains the same as put up on Wednesday.(Had a few Queries regarding Mumbai) ;

3. The UAC in the Bay has formed, and IMD indicates that this may descend to form a low.
Even as a UAC, Vagaries has mentioned its brief inward movement into Eastern India. The path and life of the UAC is shown in the map ( Wed. MW-8).
Being in uniform with that predicted in MW-8, Monsoon progress will almost be on line as mentioned in the regions.

12 comments:

Bhavik said...

Seems like SWM will advance into Mumbai and North Konkan on Sunday 17th June.
Also, expect heavy rainfall in Mumbai on Sunday and Monday with 100% cloud cover.

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, your lessons on visual metereology are fun to read, keep those coming whenever you get the bandwidth.

What do you think will be the rain quantum in Mumbai - Sunday / Monday, do you think it will be decent enough to help get some water into the lakes? GFS indicates heavy rainfall on Sunday.

venkatesh said...

Till now with the way monsoon is progressing.It seems to be a disaster this year.What is your long-term opinion about this year monsoon with the current progress

rajesh said...

NT: I have given my estimate of Mumbai rains for the weekend on the Mumbai Page, and the current lake storage.
venkatesh:I think i would stick to the deficit regions for june shown by vagaries in the june forecast map. this was put up sometime around 20 days back.
Yes,, there will be deficit regions in the peninsula and NW India, (pls refer june map again).
Overall, i would say it would be deficit to some extent in regions, but we can expect some recovery in 2nd week july. July forecast shall be put up on vagaries end of June,
BTW, where are you from, i ask for specific forecast

sset said...

Rajesh,
South India did not receive any rain for last 1 week. Karnataka 62% rain defecient. AP and Karnataka will be in 3rd year of drought. If we notice again Mah/Guj/Raj are in for rain bounty. Low pressure over central India will be weat into Mah,Guj,Raj and bring heavy rains.


http://www.deccanherald.com/content/257038/weak-monsoon-may-force-govt.html

Monsoon axis has moved in centre and will remain active for long time.


Weak monsoon may force govt to go for cloud seeding
Bangalore, Jun 14, 2012, DHNS :
State receives 62 pc below-normal rain, drought situation aggravates

The south-west monsoon might have stepped into the State as per schedule, but it has not advanced into interior Karnataka, forcing the State government to contemplate taking up cloud seeding operations in certain parts.

A decision to this effect was taken at a meeting chaired by Chief Minister D V Sadananda Gowda to review the drought situation in the State, in Bangalore on Thursday. A host of ministers and officials attended the meeting.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Gowda said the State had received rains 62 per cent below normal since the onset on monsoon earlier this month. The monsoon entered through the coastal districts on June 5.

“If the present situation continues for the next two weeks, we plan to start cloud seeding operations. A committee headed by the chief secretary will decide on the modalities,” Gowda said, pointing out that the weak monsoon had aggravated the drought situation.

Cloud seeding is not new to the State. In 2003, faced with three droughts in a row, the then Congress government headed by S M Krishna had taken up cloud seeding programme in interior Karnataka and catchment areas where deficient rains had been recorded.

Gowda said a decision on whether to include more taluks in the drought-hit list would be taken after assessing the situation. At present, 123 taluks have been declared drought hit. All district incharge secretaries have been directed to tour their respective districts and file status reports, Gowda said.

The deputy commissioners have been directed to take all possible steps to ensure drinking water supply and mitigate the sufferings of the people. At present water was being supplied in tankers in 881 villages of the drought hit districts. Hidkal dam had almost dried up and the water level in KRS dam had plummeted to a 40-year-low, he said.

The government had sufficient stock of seeds and fertilisers, the chief minister said and added that fodder stocks were available for 16 weeks. The delay in advancement of the monsoon to cover the entire State has been attributed to the monsoon trade current losing moisture to the recent typhoon over Manila and also a low pressure zone building over Assam.

The trade winds in the Bay of Bengal were not able to capture the moisture to build sufficient current for the monsoon to cross the Western Ghats and cover the entire State, official sources said.

‘It will be normal’

B Puttanna, director, Indian Meteorological Department, said that the coastal districts had received rains after the onset of monsoon on June 5. However, it has not advanced into the districts of interior Karnataka. Rains may resume in the next four to five days.

“As of now, everything looks normal. In the past, the monsoon had set in in mid-June. As many as 19 districts are yet to get rain. But we expect rains in a couple of days, because the conditions are favourable.

Due to low pressure in Bay of Bengal, the rains have not advanced. There is nothing to worry. However, it is a fact that pre-monsoon showers were below normal in March and May. But they were above normal in April. The State gets heavy rains from June to September,” he added.


http://www.deccanherald.com/content/257038/weak-monsoon-may-force-govt.html

sset said...

Year 2011 was out of bounds Mumbai received almost 1000mm of rain in June itself and by mid-july almost all lakes (around 10 lakes) overflowing.

rajesh said...

sset: you are correct. The SWM refuses to move inland and Karnataka faces a grim situation
Deficit till Date (June)
S.I. Karnataka: -81%, N.I.Karnataka: -79%, Malnad: -56% and Coastal : -18%. Overall Stae -63%.
But what low pressure are you mentioning in central India ?
The UAC is just about moving inland (see morning post on vagaries for ref).

Anonymous said...

do you think this year's monsoon is going the 2009 way? too much rain in northeast and hardly any in the rest of the country?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec6.html

sset said...

Hi Rajesh,
Your figures are perfect.

Strange fact is "Puttanna" from IMD Bangalore has been saying heavy rains for Karanataka for last 3 weeks, when not a single drop has fallen, no clouds at all.

What we notice here is KAR,AP and major parts of TN are facing consequtive years of droughts (3 years), even NEM are almost negligible. This suggests a trend towards desertification.

But for central India,MAH,GUJ,RAJ it is otherway.


It is a stressful time for farmers across the State, thanks to truant South-West monsoon.

The helplines of Karnataka State Natural Disasters Monitoring Centre (KSNDC) has received not less than 300 calls from farmers seeking details regarding the possible revival of the monsoon.

While the Indian Meteorological Department is hopeful about the advancement of the monsoon in interior Karnataka, the Drought Monitoring Cell says at best most parts of coastal districts may get scattered rain but not interior Karnataka. The satellite imageries hardly show cloud formation over the State, including the coast.

sset said...

Rain rockets to the rescue - Karnataka Govt prefers ground-based clound-seeding technique.

svt said...

Intermittent rain in Dadar since morning.We can now safely say that Monsoon has arrived in Mumbai.We might get total of 200mm of rains in next 5 days.

rajesh said...

svt:Overnight 4 mms in colaba and 22.8 mms here at Mahalaxmi.(see Mumbai Readings @ vagaries Page)..see Mumbai Page for my estimates..