Today,Thursday 21st, the axis of the Monsoon is stuck to its Northern position along the UP plains and stretching from Punjab (Pakistan) thru Delhi and with its Eastern end over UP. As explained a few days back in Vagaries, the Easterly winds blow to the North of the axis and the westerlies to the south. Please refer to Monday axis map shown in Vagaries .
Today (Thursday), in the 700 hpa chart analysis, we see another UAC formed over the Bay off the W.Bengal/Orissa coast.
This UAC will track into the axis and bring heavy rainfall into Orissa and East MAP in the next 2 days, Friday and Saturday. By Saturday evening/Sunday, it will fizzle out as an embedded UAC in the trough somewhere in Central UP.
Now, as a result, from Friday, 22nd, the SWM will move "from the rear" deeper into west UP and along the axis, proceed Westwards.
The Monsoon progress halts as the UAC weakens (Sunday).
Delhi may have to wait.
After the Monsoon trough in the North weakens, the rains will rainfall in Orissa and adjoining W Bengal will decrease to a greater extent from Tuesday 26th.
Resultatntly, a very windy Sunday with west winds for Kolkata. Rainfall in Kolkata will be negligible from Sunday.
But, the Break Monsoon" status quo continues in the Peninsula and Western India. It will be negligible rains in West MP, Gujarat, Interior Maharashtra and the NW states till Monday, 25th.
Strong Dusty Westerly winds would sweep Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of NW India Saturday thru Monday.
With the trough remaiming weak off the West coast, and the trough in the North in its Northern most position, this status quo for the region, and the west coast will continue to get meagre rainfall at least till Sunday/Monday, 24/25th.
We could see the off shore trough in the west strengthening from Tuesday. 26th, to some extent.
The Southern States of TN, interior Karnataka and complete AP, will see no meaningfull increase in rains till Tueday 25th (at least).
Temperatures expected to rise to over 40c again from Sunday thru Monday in Coastal AP as the region gets strong West winds, blowing out in the Sea.
Pakistan: Karachi will get strong west winds, sweeping thru Lower Sindh regions Saturday thru Monday. Monsoon rains have still to cover many an area before reaching Pakistan.
Vagaries had put 1st week of July in the last forecast.
With the Monsoon playing truant, Balochistan and Sindh will continue to heat up. As estimated, the region has heated up, with Larkana at 49c on Thursday. Another 50c is possible this weekend.
Sukkur will continue to scale 46c, maybe touch 47c on the weekend.
Friday 22nd/Saturday 23rd/Sunday 24th: Hazy skies, Partly Cloudy, with hot days at 33/34c and nights at 27/28c. A light rain shower with a couple of passing rains in some parts. Rain amount : 5-10 mms.
Monday 25th: Partly cloudy with days at 31c and possibility of some showers in some parts in the evening. Rain amount upto 10 mms.
Thundery developments on Tuesday. Tuesday forecast later.
Pune: Friday/Saturday/Sunday/Monday: Partly cloudy. Light drizzle in some parts. Days will be around 32c. Thundery developments on Monday evening (may not rain).
Surat: also will see no significant increase or change in rainfall till Monday. In fact nights could get stuffy at warm at 28c. Rain amount may not exceed 5 mms /day.
Nagpur may see some weekend showers due to the "fringe" effect of the UAC mentioned above. As the UAC fades, the rainfall decreases substantially from Monday in Nagpur.