Mumbai Sunday Rainfall on Mumbai Page and " Vagaries Readings" Page
1. All perfect for the West Coast. As hoped for on Friday, an UAC "dutifully" forms embedded in the trough off the West Coast of India. And, this pulled up the SWM up the Mah coast upto 20N, and moved monsoon clouds into Western/Southern interior Mah.
Today, Sunday, 17th June, SWM has advanced into N.Konkan. Mumbai and upto 20N, Dahanu. See Map on Current Weather Page.
(Check MW6 & 7. Dated 20th and 26th May. Mumbai Monsoon dates were published as 13th/14th June )
2. This was also aided by the remnants of the UAC tracking inwards from the East coast. Now, with a vortex just North of Hyderabad, which is expected to linger in the region of North AP (Hyderabad), N.I.Karnataka (Gulbarga) and adjoining Marathwada, Heavy rain with thunder could be expected in the regions mentioned above thru the life expectancy of the UAC, 2 days, Monday18th and Tuesday 19th.
Hyderabad gets good rainfall till Tuesday, decreasing thereafter.
(sset)Bangalore may see the effect of clouds and some light rains on Monday. As there is no system thereafter, Bangalore will get no meaning full rains till Friday next.
Pune will see clouding and some rains upto 10 mms on Monday, and decreasing from Tuesday. Warming up to 34/35c after Tuesday.
Kolkata will see a slight decrease in rainfall from Tuesday, with very little rainfall till Thursday 21st at least.
SWM pushing into the Marathwada, N.I.Karnataka and S.Orissa and W.Bengal on Monday and Hopefully moisture from the UAC will create persistent convective showers in a couple of days thereafter (in isolated pockets)with SWM moving into Vid by Tuesday or Wednesday.
No substantial push Northwards of the Monsoon from this point in the coming week.
Dry and hot in Pakistan this coming week. With no rainfall expected, places like Sukkur could cross 46c this week. Hot spots in Balochistan and Sindh could reach 48/49c this week.
Islamabad could be cloudy on Monday as a WD moves away. Dry and warming up later.
The effect of The Mascarene high, described as the "power House" of the SWM in Vagaries' MW -1 , very aptly decsribed and illustrated by Kaneyen here. in Indian Weatherman.
The UAC in the Western Arabian Sea has faded, and the off shore trough (west coast) gettting better organised.
IMD's Meteorogical Criterea for SWM advance is considerable depth of W/SW winds along the coast. That's the reason I got a bit confused when "upper winds tended to veer away from SW directions yesterday.
Today's winds show full SW direction right upto 500 hpa height. 300 hpa and above do not concur, but that is normal. OLR yesterday was 200-230 and today shows 150 along North Konkan.
Other rainfall parameters also satisfy and justify an onset.
A thick covering of multi-layer clouds covered the Mumbai skies from afternoon on Sunday. Low strato cumulus clouds at 1500 feet are sailing past with gusty winds from 2 pm onwards heralding the SWM.