Tuesday, April 19, 2011

W.D.s over, Heat will build up, Starting from Gujarat and moving into Northern plains from Saturday.

Northern Region:

End of the W.D. Season. Looking over the western horizon, and with no W.D. in sight, it seems with A3, we can expect the regular W.D.s to finally cease.( However W.Ds continue in the extreme Nortern regions, in N.Kashmir and above).
After the routine A3 effect, the temperatures are expected to rise from Saturday onwards. Yes, the below normal days for N.India are over after this weekend.

Sure its needed. MW has been constatntly pointing out to the seasonal low factor as "un favourable" and the making-of-the -seasonal-low events had better pick up and gain momentum now.
Delhites, forget the 30s from Saturday,23rd April, and welcome the 40s. all over the Northern plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and U.P.hotter days could be expected, after the 25th of April, turning into heat waves.
Kashmir dry after Thursday, 21st, and warming up !

Gujarat would start heating up immiedietly. Ahmadabad and Baroda can expect to touch 44c on Thursday itself. By Thursday/Friday, I expect some hot spots, maybe Idar, to become the first city in India to touch 45c.

Maharashtra, the interiors would receive thundershowers this week. Vidharbha can expect thundershowers on 21st/22nd, Thursday/Friday, keeping the temperatures this week contained within 41c. Nagpur can expect some heavy thundershowers on Thursday/Friday, specially heavy on Friday. Similarly, convective rains could be expected in Southern regions of the state. Pune would be dry this weekend, with the days around 38/39c.

Southern states, Karnataka and Kerala, will get convective showers this week. Interior regions of Karnataka could get very heavy downpours, while T.N. interior regions would get thundershowers till Friday. Intensity of rains increasing from Saturday in Kerala.

Rainfall tapering off from W.Bengal. NW winds commencing in the NE states (and Bangladesh) will bring violent storms from the weekend.

Seeing rainfall decrease in Nepal from Wednesday itself. Remaining moisture may last for a couple of days to bring convective rains in pockets around the central region. Getting hotter from Saturday. Back into the 30s for Kathmandu.

Next MW on Saturday promises to be more +ve, if the above estimates fall in line.

Shall put up a Vagaries forecast map on Thursday to cover upto Monday.

IMD Monsoon Forecast: Normal Rains, i.e.96%-104%, with error of +- 5% , that means rains could be between 91%-109%, and that would mean a correct forecast ! What a range IMD allows itself !
If Gujarat receives 115%, and Orissa gets 85%, the overall India predictions by IMD would still be termed as accurate!
No Comments ! Forecast is like a de-flated Balloon.
No Comments !




5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well said Rajesh,
IMD forecast is like stating the obvious. why cant they stick their neck out and give atleast region wise prediction.

Ananth

Ashok Patel said...

I thought "Forecast is like a de-flated Balloon." is a Comment!!.....No Comments !

rajesh said...

ananth, they will give another forecast in June ..
Ashokbhai, You are back from vacations.-:) No comments after that comment !

Anonymous said...

Hi
Could you please tell me when will mumbai droppler radar will start if you have any knowledge of it.

rajesh said...

@anonymous.
Start of Mumbai Radar was informed on Vagaries about a month back. Maybe you missed it.