Many International forecasting models indicate the formation of Pre- Monsoon low pressure in the Bay by the 1st of May.

Vagaries estimates the system may ultimately develop into a depression, ( maybe upto 998 mb) at the most, and move NE towards Myanmar around 3/4 May. This direction is estimated by Vagaries seeing the SST having its "core heating" sector near the Myanmar coast.

Also a W.D. in Northern most Kashmir and Afghanistan will push NW winds into the plains of the Sub-Continent, which can divert the system towards east

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Dont see much effect on Indian coastline

e.

MW 4 being put up tonite.