Many International forecasting models indicate the formation of Pre- Monsoon low pressure in the Bay by the 1st of May.
Vagaries estimates the system may ultimately develop into a depression, ( maybe upto 998 mb) at the most, and move NE towards Myanmar around 3/4 May. This direction is estimated by Vagaries seeing the SST having its "core heating" sector near the Myanmar coast.
Also a W.D. in Northern most Kashmir and Afghanistan will push NW winds into the plains of the Sub-Continent, which can divert the system towards east
Dont see much effect on Indian coastline
MW 4 being put up tonite.