Saturday, April 09, 2011

Come Saturday, and A2 arrives from across the West into India. And sure enough, it is more effective than A1. Advent of Summer will be halted for a few days in the Sub-Continent.

Sub-Continent Outlook for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday:

Vagaries 3 day Forecast Map for 10th, 11th, and 12th April. Click Here for enlargement. Click here for Vagaries Severe Weather Map


Into India, the Northern states of Kashmir and H.P. will get good amounts of precipitation, and snow in the higher reaches of both the states. Snow in Khilanmarg, Gulmarg and Sonmarg possible. Maybe some parts of the Jammu-Srinagar Highway could be affected.
In H.P, Snow possible in Lahaul and Spity valleys and in Keylong and Kalpa.
Shimla, which had a high of 21.6c today, will see the next 3 days cooler by almost 5c, and hills of Manali and Dalhousie will be wet with the day not exceeding 15c.
Srinagar, should also see the day temperature drop by 5/6c from Saturday's reading of 18.2c.

Sunday thru Tueday will be rainy and cold in the hilly states, and precipitation in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan will cool down the weather in these areas. Few places in Punjab/Haryana/Delhi may possibly experience hailstorms. The plains of Northern India will see the days cooler by 3c as of Saturday readings. With cloudy days, New Delhi will see the day temperatures around 32/33c next 3 days.
Gujarat will be cloudy, but I doubt any meaningful precipitation. Days will be around 40c.

In Pakistan, Saturday, rain/thundershowers have commenced in Balochistan, Lahore, Multan and the Frontier regions.Parchinar recorded 10 mms of rain.Lahore and Peshawar had traces.
On Sunday, there will be precipitation from Northern Pakistan thru Punjab, Balochistan and into Upper Sindh. Larkana and other regions in Upper Sindh will receive precipitations. Cloudy conditions will prevail in rest of Sindh, including Karachi.The city's high will fall to around 32/33c.
Day temperatures in Central and N. Pakistan are expected to be 2/3c cooler than those recorded on Saturday. As rains will bring in cooler weather,
Islamabad will drop from Saturday's high of29c to around 24c next 3 days.

A2 precipitation will be slipping into Nepal from Sunday itself. Thundershowers in all the regions of the country on Monday/Tuesday could be expected. Kathmandu day temperatures should fall into the high 20s from Sunday thru Tuesday.

"The trough/wind discontinuity from east Uttar Pradesh to Marathwada alongwith the embedded cyclonic circulation over west Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood has become less marked".-IMD Saturday Daily Bulletin.
Now, this has been the cause, (Vagaries has mentioned this earlier) of the Thundersqualls in this "line" . But its weakening, and the embedded low is fizzling out. Hence, I would decreasing rain activity in regions of Vidharbha and adjoinib M.P. from Sunday.
Some left over thundersqualls may shift east into Chattisgarh and Orissa on Sunday/Monday.

Mumbai Forecast:

Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy morning on Sunday. Light clouding rest of the days. Days will be around 33c at both centres and nights slightly warmer at 24c. Some Change in weather from Wednesday.

Monsoon Watch - 1 will be up on Vagaries tomorrow, 10th, at 2 pm.


Neeraj said...

How rare are hailstorms in the southern half of India?? I know they are common during spring in the hilly states and indo-gangetic plains.


Hey Neeraj,
Hailstorms can happen anywhere where conditions come together!

For Cent India, all conditions came together yesterday with blend of moisture at mid level. 0C at 600mb,Strong CAPE over 320J,Uncapped environment and LI=-3
The prominent feature was CAPE and less PW which intensified the updraft and hence the downdraft from where hails reach the other.

Also lower atmospheric temp got reduced at once due to outflow of thunderstorm reducing atmospheric friction and permitting hails to fall down

more update here

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