Continuing from the 28th Post......
The expected AS-1 is to form in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast by 31st .
Now, this in all likely hood is expected to start with a Vortex embedded in the off shore (West coast) trough and track along the coast till Gujarat. Today, the core pressure is at 996 hpa..but will gradually increase a little as the system tracks Northwards.
With favourable OLR, SW winds a Surface 600 levels picking up a strong and steady SW direction, the system can pull the Monsoon into Kerala.
It seems today that System likely to track along the coast as a depression.
Mumbai: Some +ve News: South West Monsoon can strike Kerala by 1st June.
City will be cloudy and very humid from Friday. Light drizzles in some parts on Sunday 31st.
Monday 1st June and Tuesday 2nd June can see first meaningful pre-monsoon showers in parts of city.
Heavier Localised convective thundershowers possible from next week (Tuesday onwards) in Eastern outer townships of Mumbai..Like Kalyan, Ulhasnagar, Badlapur, Panvel and Karjat.
Pune: First meaningful rain showers on 1st June Monday with thunder. Continuing on Tuesday also.
As the system moves, rainfall from 1st June will also increase along Kerala, Coastal Karnatak and Konkan. Interior Maharashtra regions like Madhya Mah. and Marathwada will see increase in rainfall from 1st June. All interior rains decreasing after 5th as the system moves away.
Goa can expect pre monsoon thunder showers from 1st June Monday thru the week. Heavier rains on Tuesday with sharp spells.
Gujarat gets rains from this system from 2nd June..Initially South Coast and then Saurashtra.