One of the conditions of the onset over Kerla is depth of westerlies up to 600hpa. Presently westerlies are confined up to 850 hpa. Disorganized due to UAC. So conditions are not ripe to call onset over Kerla today.
Posted 30th May 1 pm:
Now, waiting for UAC in the Arabian Sea around Lakshadweep to descend as AS-1;;by tomorrow 31st.
We see a confluence of winds at the 500 level, and powerful SW jet streams along the Northern part of the West coast of India.
On the basis of pressure gradient and upper winds, the AS-1 will deepen to Depression and track (we maintain) along the coast Northwards..or N/NW...and then curve.. as shown in Image.
If so, will pull up the Monsoon Current along the coastline. Kerala should see Monsoon set by 2nd June..Coastal Karnataka by 4th June.
Rains likely to push up the West Coast till Kokan by 5th June.
Mumbai: Monsoon over Kerala by 2nd June:
Pre Monsoon Thunder showers.showers from Monday 1st June, increasing on Tuesday 2nd and Wednesday 3rd.. Typical monsoon windy weather by Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday could measure 20-30 mm /day.
But possibility of decrease after Friday 5th.. Meaning it will be a phase of rainfall next week.
Heavy Thunder Showers likely in Eastern Outer Townships like Badlapur, Panvel, Karjat from Tuesday 2nd.
Pune: Pre Monsoon Thunder Showers commencing on Monday 1st and increasing on Tuesday 2nd and Wednesday 3rd. Decreasing thereafter.
Goa: Moderate to heavy pre monsoon showers next week in Goa. As the depression moves North from Monday, the showers will commence and last for 3/4 days.
Surat : Showers on Wednesday 3rd and Thursday 4th.