Sunday, May 10, 2020

Monsoon Watch -3 Part 2....10th May 2020
This is our view and should not be used commercially. It is subject to change.

Several factors show uncertainty in Monsoon arrival schedule..Like running WDs keeping the temperatures in the North under control and keeping the seasonal Low around 1004 mb, Bay situation fluid with less SST gradient and irregular winds. Cross Equatorial winds still weak and also 200 jet streams showing deep Southerly trough.

Keeping this in consideration, Vagaries gives the expected dates of arrival of the South WEst Monsoon this year.

South Andaman : 16th /17th 
Andaman :18th May 

Maldives :27th /28th May 
Sri Lanka: 31st /1st June 

Kerala & NE :3rd/5th June 
Coastal Karnataka: 6th /8th 
Goa 8th/9th
South Konkan :10th /12th 
Mumbai :13th /15th 

Subject to weather changes...

Further progress will be published at a later date.

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Posted 1 pm IST Tuesday 2nd June: AS-1...A deep depression located at  15.3 N and 71.2 E..with estimated winds at 55-65 kmph and estimate...