Yesterday's UAC has tracked towards the South Andaman Sea.
Over South Andaman Sea, Low and Medium clouds with embedded very intense convection are seen in the Satellite images.
MJO index now lies in Phase 4, and in the next 3 days likely to move thru Phase 5 and 6. Will support the convection activity.
Bay SST favourable around 30c-31c. Heat potential is supportive in the South Bay, but decreasing in the North Bay.
Wind shear is low ( 5-10 kts) in the South Bay, say below 15N. It is increasing, becoming high in the North Bay.
Low pressure situation is mature to form in the next 24hrs. Probability of Cyclogenesis is good in the next 48 hrs.
BB-1 will track N/NW initially and become a depression.