Posted Monday 4th May afternoon:
Monday Afternoon ↧
BB-1, still in Low Pressure stage is showing lethargic progress. Due to:
1. Insufficient SST gradient in the Bay. The SST is 30-31c, but the Cyclone Heat Potential is 100 KJ/Cm2 over South Bay and Andaman Sea, and 60 KJ/Cm2 over the North Bay.
2. MJO amplitude decreasing, instead of remaining steady.
3. Upper Level Divergence has decreased over the Low region as well as over Equtorial Region.
Vertical Wind Shear is moderate (But increased slightly) over South Bay Region.
Intensification may take a little longer gradually than predicted..say in another 2 days.