Sunday, May 31, 2020

Posted 31st May 12 Noon:

AS-1 forms in the Arabian Sea at 10.6N and 72 E..1007 mb estimated pressure, about 440 kms West of Kochi.

Fast development of Divergence seen at 200 levels. Favourable SST and Low wind shears at lower levels will help in fast intensification of the system.
Likely now to intensify to Depression and Deep Depression by 2nd June..and track along the coast.
System , under upper air influence, likely to cross land on the Mah/Gujarat coastal border by 3rd June..

Heavy rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnatak on 31st/1st June and moving up the coast to Goa, South Kokan by 3rd June, finally system turning NE towards land by 3rd June , with very heavy rains in North Kokan and South Gujarat coast.

Mumbai: Cloudy and light pre monsoon rains on Monday. Days cooling down by 4/5 degrees next week...
Tuesday increase in rains and windy. 
Wednesday, rather heavy thunder showers ( 75-95 mms) and very windy from the E/SE. Around 50-70 kmph in phases. Rainy days .

Pune: Pre Monsoon showers commence on Monday and increase on Tuesday. Wednesday heavy rains , upto 50 mms, with a cool day with maximum around 25c. Decrease in rainfall from Thursday.


Goa: Rather heavy rains from Monday thru Wednesday. Expecting good amounts on Tuesday with day below 30c.

Surat: Moderate to heavy showers likely in Surat from Tuesday thru Friday..yes, thru the week. Initially on Tuesday /Wed we may see upto 35 mms/day.
But Valsad, being nearer the crossing path, may see heavier rains upto 60 mms on Wednesday.


14 comments:

Abizer kachwala said...

What about Nagothane sir...less. damage in terms of winds and rains..or equal damage like coastal areas from the cyclone?

Rajesh said...

Abizer.. Your region will get rain from tomorrow And peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. Upto 150 MMS next week. Winds not as much as full cyclone..should be about 75 -80 kmph. That also very strong

sset said...

http://www.vagaries.in/2015/06/

Will we see repeat of above pattern for GUJ / MAHA -> torrential rains + flooding!

Rawat said...

Will this system has any indirect impact on North west India including NCR?

Unknown said...

Thanks Rajesh for keeping us regularly updated about AS1. The monsoon has not yet entered India officially, we are just in emd May today and we are already talking about potential rains in Mumbai in a few days. Incredible how the weather behaves thanks to these systems. As I always say, your blog could not have had a better name to describe the Indian rains in particular : VAGARIES OF WEATHER indeed !

Suresh

sset said...

Cyclone Nisarga for MAHA/GUJ !!!

Konkani Don said...

Rain started in sawantwadi. Very dark clouds.

Vinod Desai said...

Hello Team,
Any rains due to system to North Gujarat places like patan.

Mani said...

Is quantumn of rain for 2020 season already published or yet to be published?. I couldn't see it in the blogs that i checked

Mani said...

Rajesh Sir, will you be publishing the quantum of rains for 2020 for the country ?

Mani said...

Rajesh sir, will you be publishing the quantumn of rains for the country ?

sanjeev Gokhale said...

Let us be ready for monsoon in Mumbai and repeated comments for next few months

Shri said...

Woke up to the smell of earth and lite rains here in Mira rd , North Mumbai.

Is this a prelude to the coming cyclone ?

The Almanac said...

@Rajesh sir, are the predictions about cyclone hitting Mumbai exaggerations or it is cause for real concern?What are your views on IMD's statement about Mumbai being impacted?

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