AS-1 forms in the Arabian Sea at 10.6N and 72 E..1007 mb estimated pressure, about 440 kms West of Kochi.
Fast development of Divergence seen at 200 levels. Favourable SST and Low wind shears at lower levels will help in fast intensification of the system.
Likely now to intensify to Depression and Deep Depression by 2nd June..and track along the coast.
System , under upper air influence, likely to cross land on the Mah/Gujarat coastal border by 3rd June..
Heavy rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnatak on 31st/1st June and moving up the coast to Goa, South Kokan by 3rd June, finally system turning NE towards land by 3rd June , with very heavy rains in North Kokan and South Gujarat coast.
Mumbai: Cloudy and light pre monsoon rains on Monday. Days cooling down by 4/5 degrees next week...
Tuesday increase in rains and windy.
Wednesday, rather heavy thunder showers ( 75-95 mms) and very windy from the E/SE. Around 50-70 kmph in phases. Rainy days .
Pune: Pre Monsoon showers commence on Monday and increase on Tuesday. Wednesday heavy rains , upto 50 mms, with a cool day with maximum around 25c. Decrease in rainfall from Thursday.
Goa: Rather heavy rains from Monday thru Wednesday. Expecting good amounts on Tuesday with day below 30c.
Surat: Moderate to heavy showers likely in Surat from Tuesday thru Friday..yes, thru the week. Initially on Tuesday /Wed we may see upto 35 mms/day.
But Valsad, being nearer the crossing path, may see heavier rains upto 60 mms on Wednesday.