IMD statement today: "Yesterday’s U/A Cycir over West M.P now lies over East Rajasthan and adj. areas and extends upto 0.9 Km. a.s.l".
IMD confirms vagaries forecast !
Current System Update:
"System will cross as a depression, maximum it can cross as a DD".That's what vagaries had anticipated for the current low in the Bay.
Crossed T.N. coast today (16th. Nov) as a well marked low ! System was encountering resistance from shear winds since the last 2 days.And unfavourable developments were noticed since yesterday.
At this rate, will it survive its travel thru the peninsula land ? Can it emerge again in the Arabian Sea ?
Possibilities are 50-50. Since the movement is rapid, and comparitively fast, it may just survive a re-emerge.
On the happening of it appearing in the Arabian Sea, west coast is in for rain from Thursday.
Even otherwise, moisture spreading in the interiors can precipitate some rains in interior Karnataka and Mah.on Thursday/Friday.
I would maintain the Mumbai forecast as put up yesterday, Monday, 15th. November.
all views and forecast estimates as per the synoptic scene today.
I will be away camping in the Wildlife Sanctuary – Tambdi Surla & Mollem and Maina Lake, Goa, from Wednesday thru Monday. A breif update will be put up on Wednesday afternoon. Next full blog will be put up on Monday night.