Sunday, November 07, 2010
Cyclone Jal ! The nomenclature was misleading in itself. It earned the name Jal for a short period over the sea.
Too much excitement on this cyclone was unfounded and leading to dissapointment.
In vagaries, it was pointed out on the 4th. of November, whether it will actually cross as a cyclone ? In fact two ?? were put up. The resistance the system would encounter was mentioned then,(I received a couple of mild protests) and we see it happening.
The system is about to cross the coast near Chennai, as a DD !. At 996 mb. it has a wind speed of 35-40 knts, it is below cyclone criteria, may be a DD.
It is totally dis-organised by now, and convection clouds are seen spreading inland into the southern states.
Now, on crossing, it will precipitate rains on the North T.N./South A.P. coast for 12 hrs, that should be around 5-10 cms in prevoius 24 hrs, and inland on dissipitating, rains will be around 5 cms on an average.
As mentioned repeatedly in Vagaries, the clouding will enlarge on the system crossing land, in fact latest satellite images shaw the "cloud bloating" already taking place.
Moving into interior Karnataka by tomorrow, it will weaken really fast, and precipitate diminishing rains along its track north-west.
Should fizzle out by the time it reaches South interior Mah.
But the "enlarged cloudings swirl will cover the southern peninsula, and Mah. with light rains in the region for a couple of days.
Another write up and Matheran pics by 10 pm
Sunday Night.. 17th Heavy showers in Nasik & Jalgaon.. And in West U. P. and NCR (Posts of 11th & 15th)