Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Where has the Northern Winter Dissappeared" ?

It came with a bang, and brought good early rain/snowfall to North India. But, winter is now whining, and seems to have lost all its nip and cold.
In the first week of October, as soon as the SWM started its withdrawal, the W.Ds held sway, and set about taking control of the Northern Sub-Continent. If you remember, the North had 2 good W.D., back to back, as soon as monsoon showed signs of retreating. Snow, rare first snows of October, was seen in Kashmir, and in the higher and lower ranges of H.P. Snow even blanketed the Gharwals in October.
And the temperatures started to fall in the Northern regions and Central parts. Lows of 10c were reached in Punjab and Delhi and Rajasthan started feeling the Northern winters.Hills plunged to freezing and below.
So far so good.

But then the SWM changed its mind and refused to go away. Staying put around the Mah. region. And not allowing the W.Ds to form.
In fact, the sytems from the bay started moving in, as if it was the monsoon time. T
he first depression of the season came in October !
Where's the place for our W.Ds ?? Another system from the Bay forms a cyclone , and they
carry on from the Bay.
Systems pushing up clouds and warm air into the Northern areas, instead of restricting themselves to the southern peninsula, and mocking the prevailing north-westerlies all the way. And its still on ! A remnant from "Jal" is moving right into Gujarat !


The temperatures are high for this time, the nip is all but gone and the snows have melted away. Its back to ...not summer, but September climes for the Northern regions. Nights are up
by 9c
above normal in places, like Allahbad..in fact all over its 6-8c above normal..check on the list here. Days are in the low 30s !
Last week's temperature anomaly map shows it all.

Whats happeninig next? For the next 5 days, at least, I do not see any W.D. coming to "re-install" the winter in the Northern regions. Ok, I expect the days to drop a bit, by 1/2c, due to the seasonal shifting of the sun, but nothing really to write home about.
A real good strong W.D, is needed to bring the winter back, and I presume one might have to wait for and watch the track of another predicted system coming from the Bay.

Let's hope for the Northerners (and Southerners), the system behaves normally,
precipitates where its needed, in T.N.and not loose its way to the North !

4 comments:

Neeraj said...

Is there any relationship between the La Niña conditions across the equatorial Pacific and the disappearance of nothern winter? What additional effects do you think that this La Niña will have on the nothern winter in the coming months?

METD WEATHER said...

Truely agree with you Rajesh!

@ Neeraj, La Nina doesn't have any direct effect of India's weather as it does in USA but effects of La Nina are widely seen in India. This year coupled with strong negative Indian Oceans Dipole and La~Nina. I expect the winters in India to be cooler than normal except Jammu and Kashmir.
It will be warmer than normal in J&K

check this link
http://metdweather.blogspot.com/2010/11/2010-winter-forecast-for-india.html

junaid said...

you r trying to stay that the SW monsoon dint withdraw from maharashtra till 26th oct,,,,,,,,,same as imd said.......but in ur 6th oct blog u have mentioned that Sw monsoon withdrew from mumbai on 6th oct?

rajesh said...

Junaid,According to Vagaries, it is maintained that the monsoon was out of Mumbai on 6th.My meaning of yesterday's blog is that the monsoon was stuck at Mah.southern border. There it was halted and not retreated from beyond Goa. I am sorry if i was not clear in my writing.