Tuesday, November 02, 2010
The depression in the Gulf of Thailand has moved into South Andaman Sea. A Thai map shows the system having crossed land at the the southern provinces of Thailand coast with sustained winds speeding up to 50 kmph.and core pressure at 1002 mb. The Andaman Islands, can expect to now receive fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain with wind speeds touching 50 km/hr
The Bay can now be put under vigilance for a cyclone watch. This system will now develop fast, and track towards the Tamil Nadu coast for a landfall. Some models project a westwards path and hitting Sri Lanka. At landfall, the core pressure could go down to 994/996 mb, with winds at 90/110 kmph.
Vagaries had projected a westward movement, and prefers to estimate the DD intensifying and hitting land on the T.N. coast,(possibly near Chennai), around the 6th. Nov. By the 5th./6th, Chennai will have to gear up for squally weather, with winds at 70/90 kmph, and some very heavy rains, maybe 150-200 mms in 24 hrs. time period. Very very wet Diwali indeed !!
Very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, T.N. Kerala and South Karnataka commencing from 4th. November.
After crossing land, I would relyon my earlier estimate. As the storm weakens, the clouding will "flare up" to some extent, and cover the Southern states of T.N, Karnataka, A.P. and Kerala.
On further moving North-west, it will weaken fast, meet some resistance from the North-Westerly winds, and reach up to Southern Mah.by the 8th. November.
Rainfall in N.Karnataka could increase from the 7th. Medium rains could also precipitate into Southern Mah. on the 8th.of Nov.
The next awaited low pressure area will form off the Karnataka coast by the 4/5th. of November. Due to lack of sufficient "nourishment", it will be short lived and may not last more than a couple of days, hovering mostly in the South Arabian Sea area itself. But will precipitate some showers along the Karnataka/S.Konkan coastal regions.
Vagaries is keeping a watch, and reporting the daily development right from the time the TD has formed and travelled thru the Thai Peninsula. On 30th. October, it was put up on the blog, and since then the follow up is being put up. Until and unless there is some drastic change from the initial write up (of the 30th), there is no meaning in repeating it daily, and the next day's blog becomes a continuation of the previous blog, and accordingly is always mentioned.
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