Wednesday, November 03, 2010
The latest position of the Depression is now at 8.3N and 94E.
Indicating its movement towards the West in the last 6 hrs. Its core pressure is maintained at 1002 mb, and the winds are at 45 Kmph.
However, strengtening is expected in the next 24 hrs, due to conducive conditions of the bay waters, with SST around 30/31c.
And movement will be westwards, towards the T.N.coast.The attached estimated track from NGP seems to be the most probable track, which I would vouch for. The best possiblescenario amongst the others from different models.
Vagaries maintains is Chennai projections and landfall date, and after crossing forecasted movements of this system as per yesterday's write up.Please refresh from yesterday's blog.
It is doubtful if the system will survive as far as the west coast, as shown in the map. It should fizzle out to a mere low in a couple of days, in the region of S.Mah/N.Karnataka.
As mentioned in Vagaries yesterday, another low has formed in the Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka coast. The parameters and performance of this low should be as per yesterday's description, without change.
Next update at 9 p.m. tonite.
Posted 21st January Afternoon: Once more, a round of snow for J&K, Ladakh, H.P, and Uttarkahnad with the advancing Western Disturbance ...