Monday, June 16, 2014

Wednesday Morning: Bay Low crosses Land through W.Bengal, and located approximately centred over Kolkata...Note, the centre is always approximated for such weak lows.

Posted Tuesday 17th Night:

The so called off shore trough off the West Coast of India has become just the opposite....its become a ridge.
And now, with NW winds cause by the ridge, what do you expect but low rainfall along the coast...all stations along the coast will get little rainfall next 2 days.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy on Wednesday 18th and Thursday 19th. Some passing showers in parts of the city will keep the rain guage from getting absolutely dry. Should measure about 5-10 mms /day next 2 days. Nights will get warm again at 28c.

Pune will be partly cloudy and at around 33c. Light rains by evening in some parts.

The Low in Northern bay will cross into land on the Odisha/W.Bengal border.
Heavy thundershowers are likely next 2 days in W.Bengal and Sikkim. Odisha and adjoining Chattisgarh too will get heavy showers. 

SWM is likely to move into Bengal , Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sikkim  and Eastern Nepal by Thursday 19th.

Kolkata and Bhubaneshwar are likely to get thunder showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with heavy rains in Northern Odisha regions.

Chennai will be hot and sultry, with days around 38-39c. The trough in the Bay could "push" a thunder storm in the vicinity of Chennai on Wednesday /Thursday.

Some isolates thunder squalls likely in Northern regions of Pakistan and isolated dust storms in parts of Sindh.

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Tuesday 17th June Morning observation: 
With UAC over Gujarat not persisting, Trough off the Maharashtra Coast seen weakening, flattening out, and just about surviving off Karnataka coast. But, a ridge seen off Kerala coast.
Thats the reason we see NW winds off Kerala coast today...

Mumbai may not get the momentum we expected, but will continue with passing showers on Tuesday, accumulating 20-25 mms by next morning.

Mumbai Rainfall till Tuesday Morning (24hrs preceding): Scruz 31.7 mms, Colaba 6.3 mms and Vagaries 9.5 mms.

Low in the Bay is now at 20N and on the East coast. A trough runs down from the Low, right thru the Bay Centre. e can expect good heavy precipitation in the trough, that is SW, South and Se of the Low....see in the chart.


Rainfall decreases in intensity in Gujarat...Last 24 hrs till Tuesday morning, In Junagadh, Vanthali was the heaviest with 47 mms, and Junagadh city with 31 mms.
Khambhalia in dwarka region received 55 mms and dwarka town 14 mms.
Surat ended up with 9 mms, but Mangrol measured 41 mms and Olpad in the region got 32 mms. 
Bharuch measured 7 mms.


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Unexpected Very Heavy Rains in Junagadh and Gir Regions last 2 days...Some torrential Rainfall amounts from Gujarat in last 24 hrs ended as on 16th Morning..

Gir: Kodinar 380 mms, Talala 191 mms, Una 161 mms, Sutrapada 138 mms.(This was the first Rainfall in Kodinar, so the totat from 1sy June is 380 mms. Kodianar Annual Average 897 mms..
This Month's Total for Talala is 210 mms and Sutrapada 138 mms !!)


Again, 24 hrs 16th June Rain Amounts : Junagadh: Mendarda 279 mms, Junagadh City 204 mms, Vanthali 172 mms, Manavadar 134 mms, Malia 123 mms.
Porbandar: Kutiana 71 mms and Ranavav 39 mms.

In last 24 hrs, Vansda in Valsad region got 86 mms.and Valsad got 27 mms.
Surat: Olpad 36 mms, Kamrej 18 mms, Surat 12 mms.
Rajkot: Upleta 119 mms, Gondal 50 mms, Jetpur 28 mms And Doraji 25 mms. Rajkot city got 7  mms.
Tapi: Songadh 33 mms.

Mumbai rain as on 8.30 am Monday: Colaba 16.6 mms, Scruz 15.1 mms but vagaries side only 4 mms.
Other Maharashtra Amounts being compiled and will be up on Vagaries Rainman..

25 comments:

SVT said...

I'm really having bad feeling about this months rains. So little it has rain last 2-3 days and forecast for next few days not looking good either. We will be lucky to go pass
June's normal rains.

Neeraj said...

Monsoon is late for Kathmandu. Any tentative date of arrival ?

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir pls let us know yr views on the monsoon forecast this season.

believe

normal this season? What are yr views? Pls let

Mumbai

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir what will b the approximate average of rainfall for mumbai this year in month of june

sam khan said...

flashes of lightning Loud thundering has started in Vasai

vishwas shinde said...

Light rain in santacruz but not continues....

sam khan said...

Heavy rain's with thunder and lightning lashed Vasai in the evening, good downpour.

rajesh said...

SVT: yesterday i have given Mon and Tuesday forecast

Khyati: I would still expect ariund 425-475 mms in June for Mumbai...Mumbai July rains will be normal..around 500-550 mms, but suspect lower than normal in August.

sset: Navi Mumbai measured 42 mms till 8.30 am Monday..

rajesh said...

Neeraj: I have given the Monsoon arrival for Nepal in my earlier post..expecting this week

rajesh said...

Neeraj: I have given the Monsoon arrival for Nepal in my earlier post..expecting this week

sset said...

Rajesh Sir - What are your views on Gujarat. It has seen excess rains for last 5 years and 2013 September extreme rains of 500mm - 400 - 300mm in 24 hrs for 7 days. Yesterday dump of 400mm in Junagadh.. But reverse happens over SE India - continuous drought and NE failure...This year NE failure will lead to catastrophe for AP/TN. 2014 SWM Augumbe recorded deficient of -500mm!!! infact no rain over South interior KAR... monsoon just zipped to GUJ...

Junaid said...

Yesterday the day was mostly cloudy and cool with spells of sunshine in between,first time in the day received heavy showers , New Panvel recorded 58 mm of rain ending 8:30 am today(17-6-2014). The seasonal total has crossed the 100 mark and stands at 121 mm till date.
Source - Private reading

prabhu archana said...

rajesh sir will elnino affect kerala monsoon or will we recieve normal rains till september...

rajesh said...

Prabhu Archana: I know you are worried about the current lull in the rains...but as i explained, a temporary ridge has formed off Kerala. I would expect a low rainfall in Kerala for another 4 days.Idukki rainfall is deficient as of now.
But, dont worry, the El Nino has not yet even formed. And even if it does it will be in September, earliest late August. It will not have major effect on Kerala.
will keep informed...

rajesh said...

sset: Gujarat does go in for a battering frequently. Positined in such a way, that even UAC gives max rains...see video of vagaries meet for last years explanation..

rajesh said...

sset: Gujarat does go in for a battering frequently. Positined in such a way, that even UAC gives max rains...see video of vagaries meet for last years explanation..

Atul said...

Sir,
Would there be deficit rain for Pune and Madhya maharastra for month of June? As most of the rain for this region has been sucked up by the low in Arabian sea Right now in Pune there is no sign of rain at all. Do you foresee any rain in coming week or by end of this month in this region?

Thanks,
Atul

prabhu archana said...

thnx sir...:)

Pavan said...

I think its one of the driest june i have ever seen for my place dharwad and pune

prabhu archana said...

hi sir.as u predicted kerala has strated to recieve gud rains from last nyt... we got close to an inch ending this morning...

sridharrajagopalan said...

rainfall for june looks absolute bleak...with no signs of revival...Rajesh your comments pls..

VINOD URMODE said...

When the heavy rain is expected in Ujani dam catchment area? Farmers are badly suffered. The current level of Ujani dam is (-)22%.

VINOD URMODE said...

When the heavy rain is expected in Ujani dam catchment area? Farmers are badly suffered. The current level of Ujani dam is (-)22%.

rajesh said...

Atul/Vinod: rains are scanty for interior Mah this week end..expected to be below normal for June it seems. The entire stretch from North Madhya Mah to Southern int peninsula will be getting scanty rains this weekend..shall put more tomorrow

Atul said...

Thanks sir for the update :)