Monday, June 09, 2014

AS-1 Latest as on 4.00 pm IST

Mumbai Scruz heading for Record June Temperature Tuesday !!

This Monsoon, Vagarians are in for a treat !!


Vagaries has Introduced its New Edition.."Vagaries Rainman". 

This edition of Vagaries is a joint partnership with Pradeep John. Pradeep's expertise and information will be available to us via his blog, which has now joined hands and is part of Vagaries...All updates on extreme rainfall and daily rainfall will be updated in this edition directly. 

We now get a daily rainfall detailed update, record rain figures and some interesting rain facts in this edition...
Happy reading and thanks Pradeep for joining vagaries. 

( Vagaries Rainman has joined the chain of vagaries' publications and is seen as a tag next to vagaries Extremes...)



Latest Monday Night Update on Arabian Sea Low on Current Weather Page...

And We Move On....!!! This App will be useful as it will be giving Short Updates on Local City weather ( Mumbai included )..regularly

A Wrapper for our Blog.....Vagaries' App now on Google Play Store.

Install here


 Vagaries App on Google Play Store

El Nino Watch ( 9th June 2014):

Above normal SSTs increased in the Equatorial Pacific and Nino 3.4 region. All Nino indices increased in May, With anomalies ranging from 0.6c in Nino 3.4 to 1.6c in Nino 1+2. In contrast, sub sea temperatures decreased.Low level winds were normal, except some anomaly in the Westerlies in the Eastern Pacific.
Lack of convection in spite of increasing SSTs, or the lack of response to the rising SSTs, show ENSO as neutral.
Hence in May, the chances of El Nino weakened slightly.Still, dynamical models favour a moderate El Nino, sometime in September/October.
There is always an uncertainty in El Nino predictions, and can go wrong or deviate. This was seen in May as the symptoms slackened.
Vagaries views..El Nino starts showing up in August/September ( Slight delay over previous estimate due to poor May progress), and full fledged by November/December. 



More Records : Dipayal (Nepal) records all time high on 8th June: 45.2c
Mumbai Scruz records the hottest night ever..Minimum 30.2c !

33 comments:

Vinod said...

Congratulation sir.

Abhijit said...

Congrats Sir.. On first day of the app weather has greeted with new all time record of 30.2c min today for Mumbai !!

parshuram shinde said...

Congratulationssss.....

Vishal said...

Great move. Cheers!

Vishal said...

Great! Cheers!!

sam khan said...

congrats sir,
I feel thunderstorm for Mumbai will be somewhere round the corner. should happen by today evening or tommorow.

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Congratulations sir

prabhu archana said...

congrats sir.... awesome

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Congrats sir
Forecast for Mumbai and thunder storm activity also Arabian sea low pressure update as waiting eagerly for the positive forecast

Hrishikesh said...

It is cloudy in Mumbai with gusty winds from south ideal conditions for formation of thunderstorms pressure down to 1001 at 1pm

sridu123 said...

Great Rajesh :) congratulation for the app.....

We requested you to make an app three years back.....now finally..:)

SANJAY said...

Congrats Rajesh. Pleasantly surprised to see the app.

SANJAY said...

Congrats.

SANJAY said...

Whats d latest on d Arabian Sea Low.

Vinod said...

This is a good news for indian monsoon..el nino getting delayed..

sam khan said...

Looks like Mumbai has started with light rain.

sksamsheer sk said...

rajesh bhai what about arabian sea branch as we mumbaikars arewaiting for the first monsoon rain ...some models suggest that low willl track to oman coast ..what about your views?

According to you from tommorrow there will thunderstrom activity i.e from 10th to 15th till the monsoon comes in mumbai and surrunding region ...
will it be same or not ???

rajesh said...

Thanks all vagarians for your whole hearted support and encouragement..It is from readers and their feed back comments that i get the energy to carry on.
My passion for the weather is lifted by all you readers..

Mumbai forecast for thunder showers remains, as we in south Mumbai did get thunder and light rain on Monday evening..several parts had light rains, wetting the roads on Monday.

rajesh said...

Main Page will now be more accomodative to the App, with one liners...will try to put up latest in shortest format, and details may be shifted to Current weather and other pages.

please express your views, if only latest one liners will be ok..i need your views please.

Hrishikesh said...

Strong south east winds hitting mumbai thunderstorm hopefully today evening as foretasted

rajesh said...

Anuj Arora: Thanks for the kind words...would be good if Yuvraj could tweet about our blog for more coverage...

Shripad Nadiger said...

Congrats Sir..hope your app will bring some rain to Mumbai...the heat and sweat is unbearable now.

sam khan said...

Will there be a thunderstorm today in the evening?

Anuj Arora said...

Certainly his home town is Chandigarh and he makes it a point to meet his grand folks every time he comes . My mother's cooking his favourite recipes is his biggest weakness

prabhu archana said...

hi rajesh sir... as u mentioned earlier that kerala idukki will recieve close to 700mms of rain in the month of june, how much rain fall can we expect this month since we hear talks on the news that there are chances for the monsoon to weaken...

Abhijit said...

It is June 10 today which is an actual SWM arrival date for Mumbai !!

But instead sudden heat wave has grip Muumbai !! And It's offical now that Mumbai has broke it's all time record of June today ! Today new record has set.. Santacruz max temp 38.0c today !!! It is highest ever max temp for June month...

Previous all time of record for June was 37.1c which was recorded on 15 June 1995..

So this June 2014 has made 2 new all time records first min temp of 30.2c & now max temp 38c !!

parshuram shinde said...

Very strong wind blowing in santacruz.. But no clouds

sset said...

Last year 2013 Mumbai had extreme vigorous monsoon. More than 10001mm in june itself (1st week itself recorded 200-300mm of rain). So in way this time it is good we can still enjoy sun light (sorry farmers....joke). Not sure what to say for Sri Lanka (it rained 1 day next day rains made departure to Oman... 1 day monsoon???)

sset said...

It is quite interesting to note Oman recently has seen increased hits of cyclones, Western disturbance...

sksamsheer sk said...

what about the depression in arabian sea ... ?? has it impacted the monsoon and delayed the onset of monsoon in mumbai

sksamsheer sk said...

what about the depression in arabian sea ... ?? has it impacted the monsoon and delayed the onset of monsoon in mumbai or not??

Also till now we mumbaikars has not received any thunder strom till now?? any chance for tomorrow

rajesh said...

prabhu archana: The system AS-1 has sucked up all the clouds, but i see the monsoon returning back to normal in Kerala within 24 hrs, by Thursday..then i see normal daily rains in kerala..you for this month at least may get the normal figure...

prabhu archana said...

thnx sir...