Sunday, June 29, 2014

Mumbai:

Mumbai rains expected to pick up marginally from Monday 30th..gradually showing increasing trend on Tuesday 1st.
Wednesday 2nd July could see a thunder shower...from current 0 mms, Monday and Tuesday could measure upto 5-10 mms in parts of city per day..more on Wednesday.

Rainfall till 28th eveing: Colaba 55 mms..Lowest ever Record for June 91.7 mms in 1947
Santa Cruz Rainfall till 28th evening: 87 mms...Lowest ever record for June 82.2 mms in 1995...so this year NOT lowest ever.

Around Mumbai, Alibag total 95 mms, Mahableshwar 216 mms, Pune 13 mms Thane  83 mms Vasai 73 mms and Matheran 61 mms, Panvel 105 mms

Lake Levels as on 28th June: Overall Level of all Lakes at 10% of Storage capacity....Sufficient till 35 days or 3rd August.....In case of emergency, water reserved for irrigation may be drawn.


A trough in the 700 hpa level roughly along the 12N line, horizontally, brought heavy showers to Bangalore and Chennai on Saturday..with Chennai MKBM recording 62 mms till evening...

9 comments:

SVT said...

As you said rain will peak from 3rd July but still at least till 8th July I dont see Typical July Heavy Rains. The problem is lack of Well marked low pressure area in Bay. We had only weak UAC so far, not enough to pull moisture. GRIM.

sam khan said...

Vasai has altogether collected 73 mm rain so far this June, and Mumbai 'Santacruz' has collected 87 mm rain till date , Even though Vasai has dense trees and surrounded by bigger hill's with forest cover in the east . Yet Santacruz managed to lead Vasai in rain total's.(13 mm difference).

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir is there any hope historically any data suggest that even if june being so poor, monsoon cud gain strength later in July August ? Inspite of el nino getting delayed as per Australian weather bureau now chances of full fledge el nino in spetember, I feel developing el nino phenomenon is more dangerous than a full fledge el nino aleady established.

GSB said...

The poor monsoon is obviously causing a lot of concern...what does past data suggest as to the present situation...

Data that is available from IMD from the year 1901 gives us the following picture...

We have had three years where rainfall in June at an all India level has been BELOW 100 mm...


2009 85.7 mm
1905 88.7 mm
1926 97.2 mm

For these three years the figures for July thru Sep are as follows..


2009 85.7(J) 280.6(JL) 192.5(A)139.4(S) 698.2(Total)

1905 88.7(J) 252.5(JL) 202.6(A)174.6(S) 718.5(Total)

1926 97.2(J) 327.8(JL) 348(A) 210.7(S) 983.7(Total)

Since we have already reached a figure of 88.5mm as on date i.e 29th June we might finish this month as the third worst since 1901..somewhere around 93mm...

During these three previous years we have ENSO data only for 2009 and that year was an el nino year ...

2009
-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5--JJA
0.6--JAS--> ELNINO YEAR
0.8--ASO
1.1
1.4
1.6

The two other years where ENSO data is available for low June rainfall are both years below 120mm rainfall...

1965 114.9(J)282.6(JL) 205.4(A)135.4(S) 738.3(Total)
2012 117.8(J)250.2(JL) 262.4(A)193.5(S) 823.9(Total)

Although not very relevant these two years ....

1965
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.8
1.2--JJA
1.5--JAS--> WAS AN ELNINO YEAR
1.7--ASO
1.9
1.9
1.7

and

2012
0.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1--JJA
0.4--JAS-->WAS NOT AN ELNINO YEAR
0.5--ASO
0.6
0.2
-0.3

Confused? Well so are all of us...

sset said...

As we see GSBs figures - similar 3 years (2009,1905,1926) with poor june, moderate jul,aug,sept. Guess we need not worry. As such MAHARASHTRA never faced drought for past decade - and 2013 over excess monsoon + recent hailstroms - soil still has sufficient moisture for different crops - so in theory MAHA does not have drought.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks for lovely quick reply.1926 needs repeatation. :-)

PRASAD GODASE said...

Sset... plz don't apply ur logic ...like kids :D

rajesh said...

Rice paddy still ok, as transplanting not yet started..some farmers met today from Ratnagiri, they said that now saplings are ready, almost 10-12 inches high. Need to transplant by next week, and THAT IS WHEN they need the slush and wet flooded fields, say by Friday....But Aurangabad farmers still waiting to sow the original seeds..

prabhu archana said...

sir we dont hav rains fir the past two days n seems critical to all planters out here... will we see some rain by july or is it a doubtful expectation sir... plz respond as we are frustrated wid d climate... thnx sir...