Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Brief Update on SWM late tonite..
Light drizzles reported from Malabar Hill and Gigaum parts of S.Mumbai Thursday Night (9 pm IST)...


Monsoon Limit as shown..
Monsoon rains gain strength in Kerala from 10th June..Idukki region can get heavy rains from 10th June.
Low likely to form in Arabian Sea around 10th June...as of indications today, Low will strengthen and move initially along coast till 15N....More as situation develops.

Mumbai will keep up with light drizzles, from stray clouds for 2 more days, but thunder showers possible in outer townships.

8 comments:

rajesh said...

prabhu: MJO is a wave which enhances or weakens the clouding and is related to anomalys in the upper winds, and can be checked on the OLR also.

Anoop: if you remember, i had mentioned hottest spell for North in first fortnight of June...

Hrishikesh: Mumbai will have to keep up with these passing drizzles for a few more days, though some thunder showers may pop up in the interiors...

SVT: my views on blog...

prabhu archana said...

thnx sir now I get a clear picture on ur analysis...

Ashish Gupta said...

This year the weather pattern has been erratic throughout the country. We had the 15 day hailstorm spell in Maharashtra. The weather in the plains of North West India was much cooler than normal right upto May. Not sure if these unusual phenomenon were related to a build up of El Nino. Most forecasts are predicting a weak and delayed monsoon, particularly for North West and West India. Any views on this Rajesh Sir?

Anuj Arora said...

Rajesh jr remember 16 th June 2013 what havoc took place in Uttarakhand gfs suggest in mid June a interactions of W.D with the incoming monsoon moisture might take place, is it too early to predict the intensity of this interaction? Like to share your views thanks

rajesh said...

Rain likely in Mumbai Thursday evening. . Seeing build up and pressure fall

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir when we mumbai people will enjoy the premonsoon showers.its damn hot n stick days currently in mumbai

rajesh said...

Ashish: Severe pre monsoon rains in interior Maharashtra is not very uncommon. Due to strong and persisting Line of Wind Discontinuity (trough) in the centre of the peninsula, this occurs. In fact if you read through the first 2 parts of the Monsoon Watch Series of Vagaries, you will see it is a prominent parameter.
Yes, nights are still to warm up in the north and central India...even today, they are not above 30c, while we have seen 33/34c as minimum in May also. WDs have cooled down the regions of the north, as mentioned in my last MW....Not connected with ElNino, as the El Nino has not even formed as yet, and you must have read it in vagaries it is just on the threshhold.
My views on the Monsoon arrival is repeatedly mentioned regularly in my articles...North India will be hot in June (mentioned in last week of May) and SWM will advance into North after 20th June.
I have mentioned that El Nino will take a grip after Aug, when North India will benefit.

Anuj: too early t commentnow,and as mentioned SWM will advance into North after 20th June, when there should be a lull in WDs. Initially, moisture from the Bay will rush in the UP and Eastern India areas.

Khyati: Every day I give a 2/3 day estimate for Mumbai..wait till 13th/14th June for regular Monsoon

Ashish Gupta said...

Thanks. Am closely following your posts!