Thursday, June 26, 2014

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South West Monsoon: The Monsoon is still to track through Northern and Western India before reaching Pakistan.
Hence, as Monsoon is expected to move in Northern India ( UP, Delhi NCR and Haryana/Punjab) around 3rd/4th July. Gujarat will get light to medium pre monsoon rains from 1st July in Saurashtra and Gujarat regions. Cloudy weather in Kutch with showers.Would expect Monsoon to cover Gujarat by 4th/5th July and Rajasthan by 8th/9th July.


Pakistan:
The Monsoon cover date for Southern coastal Sindh would be 4th/5th July.
 

We can expect light pre Monsoon showers for Karachi from 1st July. Cloudy weather, with strong SW winds would welcome the Monsoon in Karachi in the first week of July.
Squally dust/thunder storms in Sindh and Thar. Sukkur, Larkana and Hyderabad regions and SE Sindh will see very squally weather.

 

Good pre Monsoon showers in Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Pakistan Punjab region from 1st July..drop in day temperatures for sure.
Seeing the subsequent progress, we can expect the Monsoon advance into Upper Sindh, Central Pakistan and Pakistan Punjab be around 10/11th.



Posted on Thursday Night:

1. Mumbai: 
No major rainfall increase for Mumbai this weekend. Friday 27th, Saturday 28th, and Sunday 29th will be sunny and some passing clouds. A light shower on Saturday may just give about 3-5 mms in some parts of city. Weekend will be hot with sweaty nights.

For Mumbai, earliest i see some rainfall marginally increasing on Monday 30th. Thunder showers possible on Wednesday 2nd or Thursday 3rd July, as rain intensity increases compared to last several days.

Goa and Karnataka may see increase in rain (slightly) from Sunday 29th June, and Maharashtra coast from Monday. 
Gujarat may have to wait maybe till next Thursday 3rd/Friday 4th July..
Do not see a major change i rainfall pattern in Kerala till 4th July..continuing with current trend.

2. Interior Maharashtra is facing severe short fall in rains. 
Hill Station Mathearn has accumulated only 61 mms till 25th June...Surprisingly Low. Several staions like Akole in Nagar District and Shirur and Sangamner in Madhay Maharastra are also on 0 mms. Phulambri in Aurangabad region has seen only 5.7 mms. There are many stations with between 1-5 mms in the State.


Not "alarming" as yet, but surely we need the rains to pick up before a cut off date of 10th July in the State.

3. The UAC crossing into North AP coast will bring precipitation in the North Andhra/South Chattisgarh/adjoining Odisha regions this weekend.
Should observe if the UAC moves into Vidharbha on Monday. This could bring some much needed rains to Vidharbha region of Maharashtra.
Marathwada may remain devoid of any meaningful rains even next week, till 4th July.

4. The axis remains in the North. Monsoon may remain in current position, but possibly we may get very heavy rains in Uttarakhand and adjoining Nepal early next week. Shall keep a vigil on this situation.
Pre Monsoon Thunder showers start for Delhi NCR from Sunday, and possibly bringing in the Monsoon within the next 4/5 days by mid week.

12 comments:

rajesh said...

Prabhu Archana:Do not see a major change i rainfall pattern in Kerala till 4th July..continuing with current trend.

Hrishikesh: Difficult to tell about winter WDs now..

Yashwant: to get a grasp on met. it is better to take up a course in atm sciences or met from some university. taking it seriously need proper study and systematic follow up..

Gnjan: SWM in our region s getting into a serious situation..we have been told of the ridge stubbornly seated in the peninsula and the axis position...but, things seem to be getting "normal" n July..though backlog will not be recovered.

Muhammad Waqas said...

Nothing about pak :( :(

Junaid said...

MSL Pressure - 1009.2 hPa
Seasonal total Rainfall figure at Panvel stagnant at 128 mm!!!!!!!! Only 3 days left including today for counting the June quota of rainfall (IMD standard).

Raja Tanveer said...

Rajesh What about thar Region ??
Monsoon arrival to Lower sindh on 5 th july .. What for lower sindh , Ist spell of Monsoon ??

rajesh said...

My views on Monsoon progress for Sub Continent put up today..

Gunjan Agarwal said...

Thnx sir, for the update. Still wanna keep my hopes up for a decent monsoon

Amit said...

Rajesh Sir,

Thank you for your update on Vidarbha. Eagerly waiting for the UAC to descend on Vidarbha.

Amit
Nagpur

Amit said...

Rajesh Sir,
Thank you for your update, and looking forward to UAC descending on Vidarbha next week.

Just two or three very short spells of rain in last 2-3 weeks in Nagpur.

Amit

sam khan said...

Although monsoon has already entered Mumbai with a faint heart, instead of a'Big Bang' ON 15 TH JUNE , But now it look's like we (Mumbaikar's) are going to get what we missed on THUNDERSTORM'S/ SHOWERS giving a feeling as though monsoon is going Re-start. from monday onwards , thunderstorm clouds have started forming in the Eastern sky FROM TODAY ONWARD
'S HERE IN VASAI .

rajesh said...

Lokmat Times page 8...Vagaries views on Maharashtra Monsoon..
http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78

Ashin Thariyan said...

As per IMD charts for today, the pressure in coastal Sindh is 1004 hPa, whereas in Mumbai it is abt 1008 hPa and in Kerala it is between 1008-1010 hPa. That's barely any gradient along the West Coast.

The charts show pressure in coastal Sindh going back to 996 hPa in a week's time. Any idea why the low pressure in Pakistan is so "high" right now?

sset said...

Problem here is MAHA is not used to droughts but places like TN,Rayalseema,interiors KAR have seen successive years of droughts..