South West Monsoon: The Monsoon is still to track through Northern and Western India before reaching Pakistan.
Hence, as Monsoon is expected to move in Northern India ( UP, Delhi NCR and Haryana/Punjab) around 3rd/4th July. Gujarat will get light to medium pre monsoon rains from 1st July in Saurashtra and Gujarat regions. Cloudy weather in Kutch with showers.Would expect Monsoon to cover Gujarat by 4th/5th July and Rajasthan by 8th/9th July.
Pakistan:The Monsoon cover date for Southern coastal Sindh would be 4th/5th July.
We can expect light pre Monsoon showers for Karachi from 1st July. Cloudy weather, with strong SW winds would welcome the Monsoon in Karachi in the first week of July.
Squally dust/thunder storms in Sindh and Thar. Sukkur, Larkana and Hyderabad regions and SE Sindh will see very squally weather.
Good pre Monsoon showers in Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Pakistan Punjab region from 1st July..drop in day temperatures for sure.
Seeing the subsequent progress, we can expect the Monsoon advance into Upper Sindh, Central Pakistan and Pakistan Punjab be around 10/11th.
Posted on Thursday Night:
No major rainfall increase for Mumbai this weekend. Friday 27th, Saturday 28th, and Sunday 29th will be sunny and some passing clouds. A light shower on Saturday may just give about 3-5 mms in some parts of city. Weekend will be hot with sweaty nights.
For Mumbai, earliest i see some rainfall marginally increasing on Monday 30th. Thunder showers possible on Wednesday 2nd or Thursday 3rd July, as rain intensity increases compared to last several days.
Goa and Karnataka may see increase in rain (slightly) from Sunday 29th June, and Maharashtra coast from Monday.
Gujarat may have to wait maybe till next Thursday 3rd/Friday 4th July..
Do not see a major change i rainfall pattern in Kerala till 4th July..continuing with current trend.
2. Interior Maharashtra is facing severe short fall in rains.
Hill Station Mathearn has accumulated only 61 mms till 25th June...Surprisingly Low. Several staions like Akole in Nagar District and Shirur and Sangamner in Madhay Maharastra are also on 0 mms. Phulambri in Aurangabad region has seen only 5.7 mms. There are many stations with between 1-5 mms in the State.
Not "alarming" as yet, but surely we need the rains to pick up before a cut off date of 10th July in the State.
3. The UAC crossing into North AP coast will bring precipitation in the North Andhra/South Chattisgarh/adjoining Odisha regions this weekend.
Should observe if the UAC moves into Vidharbha on Monday. This could bring some much needed rains to Vidharbha region of Maharashtra.
Marathwada may remain devoid of any meaningful rains even next week, till 4th July.
4. The axis remains in the North. Monsoon may remain in current position, but possibly we may get very heavy rains in Uttarakhand and adjoining Nepal early next week. Shall keep a vigil on this situation.
Pre Monsoon Thunder showers start for Delhi NCR from Sunday, and possibly bringing in the Monsoon within the next 4/5 days by mid week.