Thursday, June 12, 2014

Posted Thursday Night:

Na Nauk..AS-1...has moved West wards as anticipated, and seemingly has deepened a bit more to 983 mb. Positioned now at 18.3N and 64E, it has now moved dangerously close to Oman, and safe from Indian coast. Not heading for Pakistan either.

Now, as explained, the system is likely to enter into drier air to its west, and by Friday would start weakening, and for crossing land at the Masirah Islands region into Southern Oman, it would be better news, as the system would cross by Saturday.

Heavy rains likely in Sur and Southern regions with flash floods in the Wadis.
Muscat would be cloudy on Friday with some showers by evening.



Mumbai: IMD has kept our hopes alive by announcing that the off trough has formed, from South Maharahtra to Kerala, but is very feeble...Naturally it is feeble, the cyclone has moved west of our marked limit, 65E, and is at 64E Thursday evening. 
Scope for the off shore trough to get back on stream, but i see a slight negative"kill joy" that may delay the trough from bringing the SWM to North Konakn by a day or two...the dry air (see image) moved in with the system near the West coast !

Mumbai Outlook: Gradual increase in Rain intensity from Friday night...with marked increment this weekend.

SWM moving into Goa and  Konkan upto Dahanu (including Mumbai) by Sunday. Further movement very likely upto Surat by Tuesday. Saurashtra region, Surat and Bharuch may see increasing rains from Saturday/Sunday...
Initial advance could be restricted to coastal belt...

Cloudy weather for Karachi on Saturday, with light rains expected.

South West Monsoon may advance into Eastern Nepal on Monday...
Kathmandu, now in the 31-20c range may see thunder showers from Sunday night,which may gradually increase on Monday.Next week we see days below 30c in the capital.


11 comments:

Vinod said...

Just sometime back we got some rain here..in malad kandivali

Srikanth said...

Sir, what's your take on the lag monsoon is showing over land, while Na-nauk may have pulled the monsoon over the west coast, it is still to touch AP over land we are already seeing deficit rainfalls across the country this lag could effect rains over central India.

SVT said...

Mumbai should get total of over 150 mm rain in next 72-96 hours. Monsoon is almost here. Good Times. :)

Bhavik Shah said...

Rajesh sir, seems like entire Bay of Bengal is now covered with clouds.. can we say some good news for progress of monsoon

Hrishikesh said...

Extremely heavy rain near airport just saw an air India A321 abort landing due to bad weather

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai airport lashed by high winds and rains

Wasim Athar said...

Will the newly formed uac circulation over ECBengal develop into LP and if so where its heading?

sset said...

True to Rajesh sir prediction - raining heavily in Navi Mumbai. Most models suggest cyclone re-curve towards MAHA/GUJ... will bring torrential rains like JUN-2013???

sset said...

Heat wave continues over Andhra... It is clear that Andhra is most hottest place considering duration -- heat wave 45++- 48 started from March onwards...

sam khan said...

Very heavy showers lashed Vasai for 10 min's

rajesh said...

Low has formed in Bay off odiasha coast..will enter Odisha...but short lived system