Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Thursday Night Update at 11.30 pm IST

Posted Thursday Morning 11.30 am ISTNa Nauk located at 17.6N and 65.5E. Core pressure estimated at 983 mb, so maintaining the strength.

Track will be W/NW till evening of 12th, and then probably West. Seas in the region are very rough.
Regions of Oman between 19N and 21N to watch out for heavy winds and rain as seems probable for crossing land there.
May pass Masira Islands and cross land. Muscat may see some showers on Friday and Saturday with East winds.

Mumbai: Currently, the dry air is in the West of the system. But, I see it wrapping around the system from the South. Unfortunately, we may see drier air coming in from the South towards the Maharashtra coast, see image,causing humidity to fall to some extent Thursday.Waiting for the "detach"...




System still in critical zone at 65.3E, and now bringing more dry air.Moisture and clouding from Monsoon will re organise once the cyclone moves away..


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Posted Wednesday Night:

Na Nauk has tracked NW, and is located at 17.5N and 65.9E...core estimated winds at 55-60 knts and estimated pressure is 983 mb..
System will track west from Thursday, and move towards Oman...System will weaken from its strongest phase, and may strike lower than Cat 1. Na Nauk may cross Oman coast near Masira island in the region between Sur and Khaluf on Saturday.
Muscat may get intermittent rains from Friday.

For Mumbai, the best would be for the system to first cross west of 65E. That would "detach" the SW winds from being engulfed, and would be free to flow SW into the West coast of India.
Hopefully, the 65E boundary would be crossed by Thursday night, and revival of Monsoon would start from Friday/Saturday.

In the meantime, some convective thunder cells are likely to pop up around Mumbai and Pune on Thursday..giving the region a hit/miss chance. Convective chances are good in Madhya Mah. and Marthwada.

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Posted Wednesday 4.30 pm IST:

AS-1 is "Na Nauk". "Na Nauk" is latest at 66.7E and 17N, with a deep core pressure estimated at 982 mb, with with estimated core winds at 55-60 knts. Cloud top temperatures are -80c, and 

Vagaries would put the track as NW initially for 24 hrs. Then (see the ridge off the Iran/Pak coast), would move West. Track would be heading towards Southern Oman coast. But, seeing the dry air in the West, Na Nauk would weaken before hitting the Oman coast. May not even be Cat 1 on striking.

Muscat would start getting windy weather and intermittent rains from Friday.

Situated right in the "danger zone" for our South West Monsoon. As anticipated, it has usurped the entire Monsoon clouds into its fold, and left the Karnataka/Maharashtra coast dry and cloudless...almost. 
Dry South winds, dry because they are coming in from a patch of dry air encircling the system in the West. The winds are curving onto the Maharastra coast from below the system. See the image showing the dry patch west of the system.



"Nanauk" has to now move Westwards, at least beyond the 65E demark, to allow the SW winds to avoid getting deflected into its vicious fold. The winds B super imposed in the image are within the fold of the cyclone, and winds A are free...that is what is required, and will happen when the cyclone moves westwards, at least beyond the 65 E de mark..


Now, as far as the SWM is concerned, it is stationary at the Karnataka coast, as shown in our Advance map (Current weather page).

11 comments:

Atul Naik said...

The Mid-day IMD bulletin for June 11, says that the NLM is now at Ratnagiri, having crossed Goa! Though there are isolated rains in Goa, and some with high intensity, the accompanying blue skies and sunshine, can hardly be called as monsoon onset! What makes for onset in Goa? I've travelled nearly 150 kms across the state since morning, and this is the situation as of 2 pm.

Gunjan Agarwal said...

That's very sad. Is thete any Ray of hope with monsoon hitting Mumbai anytime soon?

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir what about the thunder showers in mumbai n what about the rains comming to mumbai as we hve passed mumbai official monsoon date of 10th june.sir what are your next predictions on thunder showers as well of the monsoon reaching mumbai

Gunjan Agarwal said...

Sir..GOD's will..but if the nanauk sucks A zone clouds also will the Sw monsoon trough formation happen again this season?

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai is very windy and hot with blue skies seen between few white clouds hopefully we will get thundershowers tomorrow

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir, will this system has any impact on north india?

Hrishikesh said...

drizzle in western suburbs of mumbai only for 10mins now

rajesh said...

Anoop: North India ? This system can not have effect there..

Nilesh Ladhad said...

expected monsoon arrival date for monsoon at valsad

Gunjan Agarwal said...

Sir when do yo expect the cyclone to detach our monsoon clouds?

sset said...

2013 NEM went into complete failure with chronic drought for TN (3 years of drought) due to 3 cyclones which did not bring any rain to TN/Rayalseema. Similar scenario with cyclone Naouk over Oman. But we never know like cyclone Phet it may hit Oman and recurve towards NW India?