Sunday, June 01, 2014


Posted Tuesday Night:

1. The gradient required is not enough (today) to get a speedy pull up the coast for the SWM..Thar Core pressure 998, South Arabian Sea off coast pressure 1004 mb.
2. Weak off shore trough runs from Karnataka to Kerala today.
3. Winds up to 850 level fairly ok, but would signify a weak Monsoon current.

SWM advances into South Kerala today, 3rd June as a weak current...

Heat Wave likely in Vidharbh and adjoining MP on Wednesday
Light rain in Mahalaxmi and at Vagaries now....steady drizzle...Posted Tuesday 8.10 pm IST

Posted Monday 2nd June,  Night....
Sri Lanka:
SW Monsoon has advanced into Central And Southern Sri Lanka. 

Naboda received the highest rainfall today of 200 mms.Galle and Ratmalana got 66 mms, Ratnpurana 40 mms and Colombo 22 mms. Thunder storms were reported in the hills.

Galle and Matara regions will experience in excess of 100 mms next 24 hrs and squally winds al along the West coast as the SWM advances into rest of Sri Lanka next 24 hrs. 70-80 kmph winds likely  from Mannar to Pottuvil and Hambantota.

Monsoon likely to advance into Kerala on 4th June as a weak current.
This weak current continues with Monsoon advance , but change possible after 7th June. The MJO shows signs of strengthening after 5th June, briefly for around 10 days. SWM must take advantage of that phase.

Parts of Mumbai and outer townships experainced very light drizzles on Monday evening.
Heavy rains and thunderstorm in Bangalore expected on Tuesday...around 30 mms possible...
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Posted Sunday 1st June, Night:

Back to back WDs spoilt the "party" with the seasonal Low core pressure rising to 1000 mb, way above the required pressure for this date. A trough running along the Northern plains, almost similar to a seasonal "break Monsoon" trough has persisted for an extra day, and threatens to linger on for a day or two more.
Reduction in temperatures in the North was also a dampener !

Even as the predicted west coast trough off the Kerala coast appeared, and the Arabian sea High ridge has "flattened", bringing in Westerly winds along the coast. 
Still two factors may delay the SWM onset:

1. The persisting trough in the north acts as a "barrier" and prevents the further Northerly movement of the actual Monsoon axis. 


The WD trough dipping at 200 mb, has disturbed the seasonal Easterly "setter". The Easterly flow which was at 10N, till 30th May, is suddenly disturbed beyond recognition, and may take 2 days to get re-organised.

2. The core pressure at the seasonal trough is a miserable 1000 mb, and the pressure off the Kerala coast is 1006mb. Required gradient is 996 mb in the Thar desert and 1008 mb off the Kerala coast.

Positive parameter is that the MJO tends to get strong from 4th June...lasting briefly till 14th June. If, the other parameters fall in line, the advantage of this "major" factor could still be taken, and SWM can advance into Sri Lanka and Kerala by 4th June. 
Still. i feel it will be a weak current initially. May not show immediate signs of advancing beyond Karnataka coast till 10th June...and should advance into Konkan till the MJO is strong !
Mumbai and Outer Townships pre monsoon showers possible around 4th June..

I could have delayed the SWM advance 2 days back. But was hopeful for a timely arrival...and was hoping for the north trough in the UP plains to vanish, we had hopes for SWM by 2nd in Kerala. Even the off shore trough off Kerala is ready, but of course the seasonal low core is at 1000 mb, mainly because of the Northern trough.
Lack of proper gradient has delayed the cloud formation in the Arabian Sea.
Also was hoping for the difference in the SST off the West coast and Somali coast to be at least 10c....


Massive Rains in Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu updated in Pradeep's Page. 1st rains in Maharashtra is also included.

20 comments:

prabhu archana said...

hi rajesh sir... wat does M.J.O mean? does it resemble heavy rain in kerala from 4th to 14th or moderate rain? thnx in advance... sry jus gettin to learn all terms in regards to weather... :)

Abhijit said...

Sir, Mumbai SWM arrival will be between 12- 14 June now ? So can be June rainfall in normal category or below normal..

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir is hottest spell of season is coming for north?

Hrishikesh said...

mumbai getting dark clouds!!!!!!!

Vijayanand said...

Very heavy rain in bangalore. Seems like full city is covered.

Abhijit said...

Badlapur had TS activity with thick drops drizzling for 10 mins around 7pm today.

Rajesh Kumar said...

So Bangalore all set to makeup shortage..

rajesh said...

Mumbai SWM full advance possible by 15th June....

Vijayanand said...

Good rain with heavy wind in bangalore last evening. A lot of trees are down in south bangalore. No current since 7 pm yesterday in most parts of south bangalore.

Jesse Ferrell said...

I am not following this forecast situation, but these are the opinions of our forecasters at AccuWeather. Please leave comments on this news article for the author:

"Monsoon Delayed Across India, Brings Deadly Flooding to Sri Lanka"

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northern-india-to-sizzle-in-ad/27739090

rajesh said...

Jesse: Thanks for your comments, will inter act with Accuweather also...

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, as you had predicted Vasai had light thunder-shower with few flashes of lightning yesterday evening . for 10 mins.

parshuram shinde said...

Yahoo finaley preeminsoon started over mumbai..

Hrishikesh said...

Rain in western suburbs of mumbai finnnnnnnnaly!!!!!!!!

Hrishikesh said...

sir what is the forecast for coming days for mumbai?

Abhijit said...

Mumbai SCZ recorded 2mm rainfall ending 8.30am today ! So first measurable rain of year 2014 today..

Karjat 1mm ending 8.30am today.

sam khan said...

Very Humid and cloudy at times, thunderstorm /shower might pop up during evening hour's Vasai and Mumbai.

Hrishikesh said...

hopefully mumbai will get a thunderstorm today evening

SVT said...

Strong weather system will form in south east Arabian sea around 10th june and move along the west coast. It might reach depression status or more. That system should bring monsoon over Mumbai around 15th June. Any thoughts Rajesh?

rajesh said...

prabhu: MJO is a wave which enhances or weakens the clouding and is related to anomalys in the upper winds, and can be checked on the OLR also.

Anoop: if you remember, i had mentioned hottest spell for North in first fortnight of June...

Hrishikesh: Mumbai will have to keep up with these passing drizzles for a few more days, though some thunder showers may pop up in the interiors...

SVT: my views on blog...