The South West Monsoon is persisting over the Southern Kerala region since 4th June.
It is likely to cover entire Kerala by Friday evening.
A low likely to form off the Kerala coast over the Laskshdweep Islands region around 8th June. The low can intensify and move N/NW along the west coast of India coming off the Goa coast by the 10th/11th of June.
This would pull up the SWM upto the Goa region by the 12th of June. The gradient will be sufficient by then, as the core would be around 992 mb, and the heat wave between 6th and 10th June will be very beneficial.
Even ( avid vagaries readers will recall, the MJO is getting strong, and will remain so till at least 15th.
The big question ....???? Where will the system track ? will it deepen ?
The system will track till 11th along the coast, using the west coast off shore trough ( which will form in a day or two), and upto 15N...Then, we observe the core pressure of the seasonal trough...whether it has moved West or remains over the Rajasthan/Sindh region. Moving West will make the system track NW... but, it is doubtful whether it can reach any coast. TODAY, the wind shear is strong, and may not allow the system to track beyond 20N line ...but we watch and monitor.
Mumbai sees the odd shower for a few more days, and we see the rains increasing after 10th on gradual basis, getting daily thunder showers after 10th.
We see the Monsoon advancing to Mumbai on the 15th, (lot depends on the developments mentioned above).
Mumbai Scruz recorded the highest ever minimum temperature again for the 2nd night this year. The minimum was 29.6c on Thursday morning. Just 2 days ago it broke the record...see details here
Vagaries' Forecast in Gujarat Newspaper...Current Weather Page