Thursday, June 05, 2014

Posted Thursday Night:

The South West Monsoon is persisting over the Southern Kerala region since 4th June.

It is likely to cover entire Kerala by Friday evening.

A low likely to form off the Kerala coast over the Laskshdweep Islands region around 8th June. The low can intensify and move N/NW along the west coast of India coming off the Goa coast by the 10th/11th of June. 

This would pull up the SWM upto the Goa region by the 12th of June. The gradient will be sufficient by then, as the core would be around 992 mb, and the heat wave between 6th and 10th June will be very beneficial.
Even ( avid vagaries readers will recall, the MJO is getting strong, and will remain so till at least 15th.

The big question ....???? Where will the system track ? will it deepen ?

The system will track till 11th along the coast, using the west coast off shore trough ( which will form in a day or two), and upto 15N...Then, we observe the core pressure of the seasonal trough...whether it has moved West or remains over the Rajasthan/Sindh region. Moving West will make the system track NW... but, it is doubtful whether it can reach any coast. TODAY, the wind shear is strong, and may not allow the system to track beyond 20N line ...but we watch and monitor.

Mumbai sees the odd shower for a few more days, and we see the rains increasing after 10th on gradual basis, getting daily thunder showers after 10th. 

We see the Monsoon advancing to Mumbai on the 15th,  (lot depends on the developments mentioned above).
Mumbai Scruz recorded the highest ever minimum temperature again for the 2nd night this year. The minimum was 29.6c on Thursday morning. Just 2 days ago it broke the record...see details here


HEATWAVE INTENSIFIES IN NORTH INDIA & PAKISTAN...From Arpit
Heatwave in parts of North India & Pakistan intensified further today with many places recording above 45c maximum temperature. 'DHOLPUR' in Rajasthan recorded the highest temperature in the plains of the country today at 48.2c. 
Other places which are above 45c in India are:
BIKANER: 47.4c
CHURU: 47.3c
ALLAHABAD: 47.2c
SRIGANGANAGAR: 47.0c
KOTA: 46.8c
NEW DELHI(PALAM): 46.6c
BANDA: 46.6c
AGRA: 46.5c
JAISALMER: 46.4c
JAIPUR: 46.3c
SAWAI MADHOPUR: 46.3c
JHANSI: 46.0c
GWALIOR: 46.0c
HISAR: 46.0c
AMRITSAR: 45.6c
GUNA: 45.6c
JODHPUR: 45.5c
SULTANPUR: 45.5c
BARMER: 45.4c
SATNA: 45.3c
AKOLA: 45.2c
KANPUR: 45.2c
BAREILLY: 45.0c
LUCKNOW:45.0c
VARANASI: 45.0c
ALIGARH: 45.0c
FURSATGANJ: 45.0c
Neighbouring Pakistan is also tightly gripped in a strong heatwave with one or two places even touching the 50c mark. Sindh region is most affected by this heatwave where many places have recorded above 45c temperature.
Here are the few places which are above 45c in Pakistan(according to PMD):
LARKANA: 50.0c
JACOBABAD: 49.0c
BHAKKAR: 48.0c
NOORPUR THAL: 48.0c
TURBAT: 48.0c
SUKKUR: 48.0c
MOENJODARO: 48.0c
SIBBI: 47.8c
ROHRI: 47.5c
BAHAWALNAGAR: 47.0c
NAWABSHAH: 47.0c
HYDERABAD: 47.0c
PAD IDAN: 46.5c
BAHAWALPUR: 46.0c
LAHORE: 46.0c
DERA ISMAIL KHAN: 45.5c
KHANPUR: 45.5c
MULTAN: 45.1c
CHHOR: 45.0c
FAISALABAD: 45.0c

Vagaries' Forecast in Gujarat Newspaper...Current Weather Page



1st 100 mm of the season in Maharashtra in Pradeeps's Page.

6 comments:

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain with thunder and lightning in many parts of bangalore yesterday late night. For the last one week its been great rain in south bangalore. Of last 7 days, on 5 days it has rained in the evening.

rajesh said...

Ashish: Severe pre monsoon rains in interior Maharashtra is not very uncommon. Due to strong and persisting Line of Wind Discontinuity (trough) in the centre of the peninsula, this occurs. In fact if you read through the first 2 parts of the Monsoon Watch Series of Vagaries, you will see it is a prominent parameter.
Yes, nights are still to warm up in the north and central India...even today, they are not above 30c, while we have seen 33/34c as minimum in May also. WDs have cooled down the regions of the north, as mentioned in my last MW....Not connected with ElNino, as the El Nino has not even formed as yet, and you must have read it in vagaries it is just on the threshhold.
My views on the Monsoon arrival is repeatedly mentioned regularly in my articles...North India will be hot in June (mentioned in last week of May) and SWM will advance into North after 20th June.
I have mentioned that El Nino will take a grip after Aug, when North India will benefit.

Anuj: too early to comment now,and as mentioned SWM will advance into North after 20th June, when there should be a lull in WDs. Initially, moisture from the Bay will rush in the UP and Eastern India areas.

Khyati: Every day I give a 2/3 day estimate for Mumbai..wait till 13th/14th June for regular Monsoon

Vijayanand said...

http://dmc.kar.nic.in/BBMP_DAILY_REPORT.pdf


from http://blog.keaweather.in/bengaluru-weather/

posted by praveen:

rajajinagar has got 7.5 mm last night.

Vijayanand said...

correction: rajajinagar has got 7.5 cms last night.

Vijayanand said...

from:

from http://blog.keaweather.in/bengaluru-weather/

states VVpuram has got 115 mm last night....its near lalgagh west gate

Maximiliano said...

Larkana max. temp. was 49.5C, with the decimal.