Wednesday, September 01, 2010
The UAC,though still active, has moved away westwards, and is now active over the sindh coast and Karachi area. Expect precipitation from this sytem in southern Sindh, and Karachi till Thursday evening.
Outlook for next 3 days, Thursday, Friday, Saturday:
With the monsoon axis today running from Rajasthan thru M.P.thru Orissa into the bay, we can expect some rains along this line. Thundershower can stray North into the Delhi area, and parts of southern Haryana and western U.P.
With no prominent system prevailing, one can expect just about normal rainfall for the regions ranging from Rajasthan, M.P. and Chattisgarh.
A feeble off shore trough off the Karnataka/Goa/Mah. coast will keep the precipitation somewhaat on, along this coast. albeit on a much lower scale.
Interior Mah/Karnaraka/A.P. thundershowers in isolated pockets. Heavy localised rains will dot the interiors, mainly due to convection. But, very isolated.
Gujarat will have some scattered thundershowers in Saurashtra region. South Gujarat, including Bharuch areas will see some rainfall on Saturday.
Tamil Nadu, almost dry during these 3 days.
A fresh low, a new system, cannot be expected before the 4th.sept.
No indications of Monsoon widhdrawal from Western Rajasthan, as the seasonal low, at 998 mb, is still entrenched in Sindh.
Next estimate of fresh developments on this blog will be put up on Friday, at around noon.
Vagaries had anticipated decrease in rains after late Tuesday evening.Wednesday's rain was subdued.
Total breather estimated for Thursday/Friday/Saturday. We can expect partly cloudy, with sunny periods. Short periods of rain in localised areas. Rain will measure upto around 10 mms/day for Thursday/Friday. Some increase in rain shower frequency on Saturday, maybe upto 25-30 mms
Next forecast (unless urgent) on Friday noon.