Thursday, September 23, 2010

An overactive upper air circulation persisting over Northern regions over the last 4 days, has drenched the region and caused havoc and floods/avalanches in the hills.

As anticipated, now, the incoming anticyclone from the west is pushing into India, and will dominate the entire North/Northwest India by Saturday, 25th. September, pushing the monsoon away, which has overstayed its welcome by now.
Vagaries to announce monsoon widhrawal from these regions by Saturday.

Across the Western border in Pakistan, the days are getting hot, with Nawabshah(Sindh) on Wednesday at 42c.

Peninsular India would continue to receive end of season thunder showers in scattered patches during the weekend and into early next week (27th/28th.). Some concentration of heavier rains along the south T.N coast.

Forecasting models centre the rains around South Konkan/Goa on Sat/Sun due to a vortex formation off the coast. Some heavy thundershowers may move into south interior Mah and North Karnataka at the weekend.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Rajesh,

Heavy continuous rains with thunders in costal karnataka yesterday(23rdSept) for 3 Hrs non-stop in the late evening. Sat picture shows lots of clouds today too along lower west coast. Any prediction for today??..

Regards,
Shri

rajesh said...

Shri, Today (morning) we see clouds over Goa/S.Konkan region.
I may refer to the last para of Thursday's post in Vagaries:"Forecasting models centre the rains around South Konkan/Goa on Sat/Sun due to a vortex formation off the coast. Some heavy thundershowers may move into south interior Mah and North Karnataka at the weekend".
I think it is as per this forecast that we see this clouding.

nt said...

Rajesh, saw your forecast for Mumbai, your comment about Mumbai getting Thundershowers for 6/7 days over the next 10 days is in line with what typically happens during the end of Monsoon period in Mumbai. However, why do you say that these will become very heavy towards the later part of next week? Any system building up around Mumbai to cause this?

Anonymous said...

did anyone see the lightning in vashi yest???it was yellowish in colour..it definitely wasn't fireworks...it was there around 8:30pm last night..but once i came towards mankhurd side by road..the sky was clear...

rajesh said...

nt,
Generally, in these end of the season thundershowers over Mumbai,after a few couple of showers, the water (moisture)content in the atmosphere suddenly increases. And when these cumulus clouds build up after noon, with additional moisture to "feed" them well, and growing heat, they grow more violent, and tend to precipitate heavy rains,specially the last few storms.
No system or anything coming, just my personal views and explanation.

rajesh said...

yes, there was lightning reported from Navi Mumbai too. A few flashes were seen over the Matheran hills too.It was from a thunder cell i saw over the area, which I saw towards the evening.
And hope you guys saw the superb "glow" in the evening too.