Friday, September 17, 2010

The MSL low in the bay off the Orissa coast now lies along the Orissa coast, and may have crossed inland today.
I mention "may" as the COLA/GFS map of Friday evening shows the low partly inland...But still at 1000 mb.

The clouding assiciated with the low is thick in the North A.P. region (as on Friday evening), so very likely the low is inland.
But the "feeding" to the low seems good, as seen from the cloud formations in the South quadrant.

I Estimate the low to move west-northwest, and track into M.P. by Sat/Sun, and still be around 1000mb.
Consequently, heavy precipitation in north A.P. and M.P. regions during the weekend. System mayfizzle out over South Gujarat/Rajasthan by Tuesday.

Eastern regions of Gujarat may get some rain on Mon/Tuesday.
Bharuch can expect some light to moderate showers on Monday and Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the existing UAC from the previous system, is now over West U.P, hence extremely heavy rains in the region were reported on Thursday/Friday.
This UAC may fizzle out by Sunday, but not before precipitating heavy rains in Utteranchal.

All parameters pertaining to monsoon widhrawal are "intact" over Pakistan and adjoining rajasthan.And, I see an anticyclone at 1008 mb developing over Pakistan by Monday, as forecasted by some models.
For all practical purposes, I would have removed the monsoon from Rajasthan/Punjab and Kutch. But being cautious, leading European and Japanese forecasting organizations suggest that rains are prolonged and may overstay.
I'll wait for the low, the new system, to finish its work, and then put up my views.
We should get a clear picture by Monday, when Vagaries will put up the further widhrawal position.

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