Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Against "vagaries "estimate of 35 mms during Wednesday, the rainfall at the 2 met. stations, till Wednesday evening , were 20 mms at Colaba and 50 mms at S'Cruz.
And, as anticipated, the rain intensity has increased towards the night.
The initial forecast fr Thursday and friday is maintained:
Thursday: Overcast and cloudy with frequent rain showers. Rains decreasing after night. Rains expected (revised since previous estimate) to around 50-70 mms.
Friday: Skies will be partly cloudy, with heavy passing showers, of shorter durations.. Rainfall to the extent of around 25 mms.
But, against anticipation, the current sytem, the low, has intensified since our last report, and at 998 mb, lies n the border of Vidharbha/east M.P./Ch
attisgarh states.(Thai map).
Maybe, now, instead of an UAC as presumed, we may see the low itself move North-West and later fizzle out over South Rajasthan.
But not befre pouring heavy rains over Gujarat/S,Rajasthan and North interior Mah.on Thursday and Friday.I estimate rainfall in excess of 150 mms in some places of Saurashtra and castal cities of Gujarat.
Elsewhere, I see moderate rains along the monsoon axis, which runs from Rajasthan thru M.P. thru West Bengal.But less "incursions" of rains into the Northern region this time. (Read less rains for the hill states now).