Wednesday, September 29, 2010
A low pressure, 92A, has formed over the southeast Arabian Sea, and on Wednesday night was at 12.3N and 68.3E, and core pressure at 1006mb.Winds are at 15kts.
Not much to read into as yet.
Most forecasts show 92A deepening to some extent, and IMD estimates it to become well marked. A deep shear tendency should help the low to become well marked, or maybe a depression.
Again, all forecasting models see the system moving west/northwest, away from the indian coast towards south Oman coastline.This is due to the anchored anticyclone north of Gujarat.
JTWC and Hurricane Zone have not put up any note of this system, not till the time of writing this blog.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the anticyclone is now well engraved in the northern regions of India, and vagaries continues its widhrawal flow.
he map above shows increasingly drying up conditions over these areas dominated by the anti-cyclone circulation expanding to larger areas.
Monsoon has widhrawn from U.P./Bihar/Jharkhand/east M.P.and all of Gujarat except south Gujarat.The 200 hpa winds (above) roughly indicate the monsoon free regions indicated by vagaries.
The next 5-days forecast (above) outlooks indicate the humidity and moisture content in the atmosphere would drop in the regions of cenral India, Mah, Gujarat and shifting towards the east.
Likely now of further southward travel of the retreating monsoon. Another 2/3 days and it will be out from M.P./north Mah, including north Konkan and Mumbai and south Gujarat and Saurashtra (vagaries estimate).
And, ECMWF has estimated a low-pressure to form in the Bay off Tamil Nadu coast by October 6. Maybe, NEM advancing ???
It is expected to to cross T.N. coast near Chennai and adjoining South Coastal A. P. by the 7th./8th. Oct.