Update on "Phet":
"Phet" has tracked Nortwest in the last 6 hrs, and has a sustained windspeed of 35Knots and a core pressure of 994 Hpa. Intense clouding and convective very heavy rains within the system are seen in the image.
The location as on 8.30pm IST was at 17N and 62.1E.
Expected to intensify to CAT1 cyclone, as water temperatures are at 31c, and
But the movement direction can be expected to curve to the Northeast anytime within the next 12 hrs. On recurving, it is expected to move rapidly towards the nearest coastline, under the influence of the trough aloft.
Gujarat coasts can expect gales and winds in excess of 55 Knots from 3rd. June onwards.
How is all this getting translated into actual rainfall?
Taking the route through Kutch,rainfall will be spreading into Rajasthan after "Phet" strikes the landmass.
Kerala"s Monsoon "Advance" has been most "Unspectacular." The rains almost vanished the next day after the advance.(See rain accumaltion map)
Till the 4th. of June, I do not see any increase in rains in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa or coastal Maharashtra. An average of 5-10 mms of rain per day. After the 5th, a slight increase in Kerala can be noticed, maybe 20 mms per day, till the 9th. Coastal Karnataka,coastal Maharashtra and Goa can get a little more, 25-30 mms per day in the 4th. -9th. period. A major increase is anticipated after the 10th.of June along the west coast of India.
For the Eastern branch of the Monsoon, I do not see the rains picking up West of Bangladesh till the 7th. of June.
Meanwhile, Pre-Monsoon thunderstorms are seen popping up today in interior Maharashtra and Karnataka, where isolated pockets had heavy rains. Pune, had a heavy hailstorm today,1st.June. 53 mms of rain was recorded in the day till 5.30 IST.Due to overnight rains in Pune, 26mm, the temperature dropped to 17.6c.
Today, 1st. June,
Highest in Asia; Makkah (Saudi Arabia) 46°
Al Ain Int. Airport ( Untd. Arab. Emirates) 46°
Gassim Airport (Saudi Arabia) 46°
Sibi (Pakistan) 46°
Jacobabad (Pakistan) 46,
and Khajuraho (India) 46
Warmest Night at Jabalpur (India) : 32.2c
Mumbai Today: Colaba: 35.2c. Santa Cruz: 35.7c. From tomorrow, as anticipated, Mumbai will recieve thundershowers in parts of the city. These pre monsoon showers, though not too heavy or lasting,will now occur almost everyday, and the temperatures may go down at the weekend.
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