Wednesday, June 16, 2010


The pieces have fallen well in place,with the trough off the western coast of India, embedded with a vortex off North Maharashtra coast,producing the heavy rains predicted, and moving the monsoon northwards into south Gujarat and all of Maharashtra.The limit of the monsoon is seen in the 200jet stream map.Easterlies indicate the monsoon limit normally.


Some of the heavy rainfall figures of rain recorded on tuesday(day n night) for Konkan coast are (in cms):
Sangamneshwar-23,Khed-15,Dapoli-13,Chiplun-12,
Mahableshwar 14cms, Dahanu 11cms,Ratnagiri 10cms, Mumbai S'cruz 9cms and colaba 8cms
The lakes of Mumbai too recieved very good rainfall on Tuesday, a boon to the city:Vihar-16, Bhatsa-7, Upper Vaitarna-5, Tansa-4, Tulsi-3,Vaitarna-2.


For Mumbai,heavy rains were predicted on this blog,,Monday thru Wednesday,At least a week in advance."Vagaries of the Weather" had estimated 23cms of rain Monday thru Wednesday for the city, and the actual rain recorded was20cms at colaba and 18cms at S'Cruz,till Wednesday evening.


And flooding and water logging and gusty winds was anticipated.The tall claims of the authorities have fallen like a pack of cards,in spite of the fact that flooding was expected.More than 20 low lying areas in the city were flooded knee deep, and Walls have collapsed.Landslides in Thane have led to much damage, and importantly,loss of lives.
Same old story!Forget the hoodwinking of the Shanghai story!Better would be a Venice promise,it will be easier !


The off shore trough will hang on, but the vortex off Mumbai, I expect, will cross inland. The result should be some torrential rains in North Madhya Maharashtra on Thursday. 
Konkan rains will linger on till Saturday, though reduced. 
Mumbai will see the rains gradually reducing from Thursdsay, and the weekend should be comparitively drier, with about 25-30mms of rain/day.
The rest of the west coast areas will continue to get moderate rains, around 35mms/day till Sunday.






All eyes on the Northern head of the Bay now. An unusual monsoon trough of low (for this time of the season) runs along the Northern plains of india, with the eastern end dipping in the Bay. Now this "dip", is the centre of all attention, and should form into a low. 
With this formation, the monsoon's eastern branch should move along the axis of the trough, and bring the rains into Bihar and East U.P.on its way into Delhi.
Also,the south-west flow from the Arabian Sea onto the Karnataka and Konkan coasts will get a boost from this formation.


With the advancing monsoon spreading a cloud cover over the peninsula,and a W.D.covering the North/Northwest,the highest day temperatures have reduced to around the 40c levels.
On Wednesday,
Highest in Asia:Basrah(Iraq):50c
Highest in India:Patna:42c
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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

You need a new poll on the blog now. The one about Monsoon arrival date in Kerala is now out of date.

anant said...

just checked
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/no_ind_ocn_prob_precip_all.html

Its forecasting excess rain in North east and scarce in central India, another report from Skymet (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Agriculture/articleshow/6060593.cms ) is indicating scanty rainfall in Central india, July should be crucial . Central India cant afford two back to back droughts .
Need your thoughts on this