An IMD update said on Sunday that the offshore trough extending from south Gujarat coast to coastal Karnataka coast persists.
According to international forecasts,the west coast and, can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall from around July 1 (Thursday).
Now thats the forecast estimate, but will the forecast sustain?? I really don't know !!
I have given the reasons in my blogs for my doubts, of the monsoon current picking up by the 1st. I do not see any "low"or system developing either side,before the 2/3 July. And, the MJO shows no positive signs till the 5th. July.
A real meaningfull momentum to the off shore trough in the west will be only after an active MJO, or a low in the bay draws the winds from the sea onto the land.
To add to the negatives,a feeble western disturbance would be moving over northwest India for the next 3 days. This would prevent the monsoon from moving further into the region.
(These are my personal judgements, and I think prevailing upon estimates given by proffesional meteorologists would be a better reliance for commercial use).
The "huge" convective thunder clouds forming last 2 days in the North Maharashtra regions are basically rising "heat thermals" and I don't think realted to any organised system anywhere. Its just a lot of on land moisture rising to great heights. And precipitating heavy "evening thundershowers', nevertheless. Organised or not, useful rain nevertheless !
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