Monday, June 28, 2010

An  IMD update said on Sunday that the offshore trough extending from south Gujarat coast to coastal Karnataka coast persists.
According to international forecasts,the west coast and, can expect  heavy to very heavy rainfall from around July 1 (Thursday).
Now thats the forecast estimate, but will the forecast sustain?? I really don't know !! 
I have given the reasons in my blogs for my doubts, of the monsoon current picking up by the 1st. I do not see any "low"or system developing either side,before the 2/3 July. And, the MJO shows no positive signs till the 5th. July.
A real meaningfull momentum to the off shore trough in the west will be only after an active MJO, or a low in the bay draws the winds from the sea onto the land.
To add to the negatives,a feeble western disturbance would be moving over northwest India for the next 3 days. This would prevent the monsoon from moving further into the region.
(These are my personal judgements, and I think prevailing upon estimates given by proffesional meteorologists would be a better reliance for commercial use).

The "huge" convective thunder clouds forming last 2 days in the North Maharashtra regions are basically rising "heat thermals" and I don't think realted to any organised system anywhere. Its just a lot of on land moisture rising to great heights. And precipitating heavy "evening thundershowers', nevertheless. Organised or not, useful rain nevertheless !


emkay said...

the peculiar steamy / muggy conditions this morning in Mumbai indicate a thunderstorm by evening I feel. But otherwise I too support your doubts on the forecasts of rains picking up by July 1st. Even the trough in eastern Arabian Sea seems to have dissipated.

Anonymous said...

Those convective clouds that Rajesh mentioned found their way into Mumbai as well on Sunday and Monday nights.

Coming on to the current Monsoon as Emkay had mentioned few blogs ago in his comment, despite progress being made in the forecasting world I guess Monsoon remains elusive and forecasting beyond 2 days is still an art then a science. Interestingly the IMD says it will rain the maximum in September - a bit hilarious considering we do not know whether it will rain a lot or not in the coming week. Anyways the monsoon currently is around 12% below normal as of 30th June 2010 according to newspaper reports

Outlook for 27th/28th/29th:(This week till Thursday/Friday) Mumbai: Partly cloudy with occasional rain showers. Warm in the day with period...