Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Rains and Pleasant Weather in North:
Since Phet crossed into Northwest India, widespread rainfall has been reported from many parts in the region, as the system had interacted with a prevailing western disturbance, and formed the mini W.D,
The ongoing rainfall due to this in the North/Northwest has pushed the heat further South and South-east to cover pockets of  Bihar,  Orissa, and Chhattisgarh.
Also, as anticipated, heavy unseasonal snow  in Lahaul-Spiti and widespread rain in middle and lower hill areas provided much-needed relief to people from sweltering heat and dry spell.
The twin valleys of Lahaul and Sipti recorded heaviest snow for June for the past several decades. Keylong, the district headquarters, had received 10 inches of snowfall by the evening and it was still continuing. The Kunzum Pass and Kibber and other higher areas received even more.
 


The core pressure of the Monsoon seasonal low over the Rajasthan/Sindh region has suddenly gone up to 1002 mb, against a normal required at this time of 994 mb.Temperatures were well below normal since the last 2 days.(IMD Maps).
The Monsoon had not advanced beyond the Northern limit aligned Southwest to Northeast along Karwar, Bangalore, Cuddapah, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok which has been held on since on Monday.
Heat is again required to create the steep gradiant to pull up the Monsoon.

Heat Wave Forecast: 
I do not rule out the possibility of an extreme heat wave over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Vidharbh, and delhi/Haryana regions from Friday thru Sunday (11th/12th/13th). The regions in Gujarat and Rajasthan will have to gear up to face temperatures upto 46/47c, with an exceptional 48c in some pockets of Rajasthan.

Forecast for Monsoon Progress:
The Bay  has spun up a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday, which forecast to intensified as a “low”on Wednesday.This would track west and cross close to the Chennai coast.
The system would continue to track to the west and re-emerge into the Arabian Sea, near Goa by Monday, 14th. June. On entering the Arabian Sea, it seems it could get embedded in a offshore trough along the west coast. This could would help intensify the system, maybe into a depression, or a deep depression, and push it northward along the coast, according to international model outlook.
According to the ECMWF, the intensified system would be pulled up towards Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15.
Most models forecast the system  would track India's west coast and head towards the Mumbai-Gujarat coast.

What is apparently becoming a certain possibility is for heavy rains over the Konkan/Mumbai/Gujarat region from June 15.
After the system enters into the Arabian Sea arena, say by Sunday,the Northward progress towards Mumbai would be watched carefully.The Monsoon arrival over Mumbai could be around Sunday/Monday.

Mumbai Forecast: Cloudy and passing showers, with the same hit and miss showers continuing in parts of the city till Saturday.
Sunday/Monday will be overcast and more rainy, with rains measuring upto 20 mms/day.
Monday night and Tuesday will get very heavy rains, upto 150-200mms, with gusty winds. Typical monsoonish flooding weather on Tuesday,15th.

2 comments:

anant said...

Still very apprehensive about the monsoon flows, has the trough of the west coast formed, any update on possible la nina ?

rajesh said...

Monsoon trough will be no problem in the west.Sea temperatures have dropped in the Pacific, below El-Nino, but not to reach LA-Nina stage yet.