Wednesday, June 02, 2010



There are 2 distinct report advisories for 0000 Hrs UTC on 2nd. June. I give below both of them, as they are giving different views on the wind speed and Category of the current strenght of "Phet".

IMD Advisory: THE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERFE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVED IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 02ND  JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND LONG. 61.50E, ABOUT 1200 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI.SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 986 HPA. (This is Cat 1)
JTWC Advisory: POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 956 (This is Cat 2)
(Note: Wind Speeds mentioned above are based on one minute averages. India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses a 3 minutes averaging for the sustained wind. The maximum sustained wind mentioned in the bulletins used by IMD is the highest 3 minutes surface wind occurring within the circulation of the system.)

Different Views on Projected Track:
IMD: THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS GUJARAT & ADJOINING PAKISTAN COAST
JTWC: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS.
THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS.
THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATUREINTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS.


Actual fact:  Cyclone PHET has tracked towards Oman more than expected in a North Northwestwards direction.
Putting forward the different predictions and status. Readers to decide further ! Feedbacks welcome.
kapadias@gmail.com

5 comments:

Commander Snehal said...

i think it will touch oman, curve briefly and dissipate

Anonymous said...

Looking at the latest satellite pictures, it looks like it will touch Oman. Whether it loses steam on doing that or recurves back into the sea remains to be seen. The moot point for us in India however is what does all this mean for the Monsoon? Two cyclones on either side of the country in a span of 2 weeks - what will this bring in the next 2 months remains to be seen

dokebaaj said...

dear sir, can we compare cyclone PHET and the 2010 sw monsoon progress with Cyclone GONU of 2007 and the monsoon of june 2007 ?

thank you.

rajesh said...

I feel that this cyclone, like the previous one, will have effect only on date of onset. like, it has delayed the progress Northwards. Actual quantum of rain after 10th. June will depend on MJO waves, and Monsoon currents.

Anonymous said...

wasn't it part of one of your monsson forecast that there will be a dry MJO phase from 2nd week..Any updates on MJO??Doesn't that mean there will be a small monsoon break then???