Monday, June 28, 2010

Great Britain to see Warmest of 2010 today
Central London likely to near 90 this afternoon
Special Story
By Mark Vogan

As of 9am GMT, Sunday, it was an already balmy 72 degrees (22C) at Charlwood in Surrey and after the same location within Greater London just fell shy of the UK's warmest reading so far of 2010 which was 84 degrees at Heathrow Airport yesterday with a high Saturday of 83 degree (28.6C) reading, it looks set that somewhere within the Greater London area will see the warmest reading of the year so far, today with Mark Vogan predicting a high of 88-90 degrees (31-32C) between 3-5pm GMT.

It's all about a "building of heat" which has been the case since Thursday, gradual warming often sees a "peaking in daytime highs" which is likely today (Sunday). When conditions are right and high pressure stands strong in one given area, highs gradually warm day after day and more importantly, nights fail to cool. When you've reached that threshold of minimal nighttime cooling, that allows the day to start off warmer than the previous, so a warmer base allows that rising sun to heat the air faster and easier. For example, Charlwood's 9am reading of 72 is the warmest so early in this current warm spell. As that sun rises throughout the morning, the air is ALREADY WARM so it doesn't take as much work from the sun to further heat the air. When conditions are right, when you look back at the previous day and it's a degree or two warmer than the same time the previous 24 hours, it's more than likely the actual peak temperature will be warmer, therefore a good indicator and often for meteorologists a good indicator at just where that high will peak at... that of course is given the winds remain relatively light and there is minimal clouds to abstruct the sun's rays to the surface. Sometimes a breeze will kick in, often due to heating, or a thunderstorm will blow up, these two factors often prematurely cut off the daytime heating process and therefore the high doesn't reach the anticipated level. That isn't likely to be the case. The atmosphere is reasonably "capped" over southern England, therefore cloud formation should't be an issue. The core of high pressure is fairly closely over southeast England, therefore winds should remain light, thus all indications are that it's going to reach forecasted levels this afternoon.
Pressures are lower across the north and with a closer distance to an area of LOW pressure to the northwest of Scotland, surface warming this afternoon should still allow 70s for central Scotland, the energy of a frontal boundary across the northwest may spark of afternoon thunderstorms across central Scotland as surface readings warm and helps ignite energy aloft. 

These very warm readings SO FAR of low 80s have failed to reach Mark's criteria of "HOT", so far it's fallen into the "Very Warm" category but if it reaches the expected 88 degrees or higher, then for the first time in 2010, southern England will enter the "Hot" category...
Mark Vogan fears a Summer of 2003 repeat
The increasingly drier soils, particularly over the Lake District but also throughout much of the UK with exceptions of northern and far western Scotland, this is already aiding in strengthening high pressure over us. The dry weather shows no signs of change and as we appreoach the hottest portion of the year, the signs are there for what could be a scorcher of a July and August. Remember the hottest air of the year during the record sdummer of 2003 didn't hit until early August! Right now it appears that July will see a much warmer and drier than normal pattern and highs which push into the 90s for the south and 80s for the north. 

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