Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The positive point of todays blog is the fixation and firm position of the monsoon axis,along the Punjab,North M.P.and Jharkhand route.The mere refusal of the axis to shift North is a very encouraging sign, and could allow the formation of a low in the Bay, and allow it to travel along its "line".
Thankfully, we can forget about the "break Monsoon" in that case.

IMD predicts that "an upper air cyclonic circulation may form over west-central and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa".
The system could transform into a low-pressure area over central Bay by as early as Thursday. The system would head westward along the axis line, over land and might inter act with a prevailing W.D. coming Eastwards from Thursday. The actual interaction region would definitely see good precipitations and advancement of the Monsoon,and go on to set up clouds over further northwest, 
The low, on crossing land (could be by Friday), will, in all probibilities, form a North-south trough from the centre of the low thru maharashtra Southwards upto the interiors of Karnataka.Northern peninsula could possibly experaiance widespread rainfall till Monday.
But,the CPC sees the revival of the monsoon covering the entire peninsula,during the week ending June 28.

The existing trough off the west coast is precipitating rains,in its limited capacity.All this due to the stubborn mosoon axis in the North not allowing yesterday's UAC to cross the land. 

As discussed in yesterday's blog, the rainfall amounts along the West coast, were much less than originally estimated, save and except the Mumbai coastal regions,which recieved heavy rains.In the Konkan region, only the  the Mumbai coast region,has recorded the highest rains.Thane Belapur 17cms,Thane 13cms,Mumbai Colaba 12cms,Dharavi 11cms and Uran 9cms.Even the ghats did not recieve much rains, just between 2-4cms.

Mumbai: Yesterday's revised rain estimates of reduced rains in the Konkan proved correct, but Mumbai turned out to an exceptional "iso;lated wet spot". 
As an exception for Mumbai, Vagaries of the Weather original forecast for Wednesday, the forecast published on 20th.June blog,was accurate, with the rain intensity increasing from Tuesday night. Wednesday was a rainy day, with 60 mms at Colaba and 44 mms at Santa Cruz of rain in the day.On revision, the estimate was scaled down to 30mms yesterday.
Overnight Tuesday rain was 123mms in Colaba and 87 mms in Santa Cruz.
Heavy showers, some prolonged, will continue into thursday morning, with rains decreasing in frequency later after friday.Thursday thru Friday should total upto 100 mms of rain for the 2 days.
Seems as of now, weekend rains will reduce to 25-30mms per day, with sunny patches.

Hot Night: Gwalior recorded a minimum temperature of 36.4c yesterday night(22nd. June). One of the hottest on record anywhere, I suppose.The nearest i know is the 38c recorded as the minimum at Sibi(pakistan) a few years back. The hottest night, in my record books, was at Khandwa. the lowest the mercury could go down to was 40c !!


Anonymous said...

As a complete layman as far as weather technicalities are concerned the following are my observations about this year's monsoon in Mumbai:
1. It has been raining continuously since the last 2 weeks in Mumbai and I cannot recall many years where such a thing would have happened in the city. This despite no presence of any obvious weather systems around. The 'Trough' while present will remain present through the Monsoon and hence that cannot be a big difference maker.Not surprisingly newspapers have announced that June rains have broken 10 years record.
2. It has been unusually 'thundery' in the city this monsoon so far. Most of the time the pre-monsoon showers have thunder and then it just rains untill mid-September when the withdrawal begins.

All forecasts point to even more rains in the coming days. While rains are welcome, one wonders when will the city get it's 'break' of 3-4 days (which is the way it normally is in Mumbai after a spell of heavy rains)

Anonymous said...

ok i have to agree with the first anon about the second point...generally i have seen lightning & thunder in the beginning & at the end of the south west monsoon..this year even after the initial thunder/lightning it has still continued till now..why is that?Can someone explain?I realise that lightning is caused due to different charges but never seen lightning prolong so much in mumbai..can anyone explain y?

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