Monday, June 14, 2010

The pulse from the bay "low" has fulfilled its duty!The predicted upper air cyclonic circulation is in the forming stage off the west coast today (IMD Map). The Maharashtra coast has been spotted with heavy rains since Sunday night 

(IMD rain Map), and Mumbai getting a drenching on Monday morning with a heavy thunderstorm.Sawantwadi recieved 230mms,Vengurla got 190mms,Goa 65mms and Ratnagiri 46mms. 

During this week the system could start attracting the flows towards itself and cover the entire west coast. 
FNMOC forecast shows a swath of rains along the Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat coast from Tuesday, this week.The system, with the off shore trough, will be raining down over the western coastal areas over the rest of the week.

On the contrary, the eastern coast, comprising Tamil Nadu, A.P, and Orissa, will be much drier with scanty rains during the week in discussion. I see the "low" fizzling out "on-the-spot" near the T.N.coast itself by Monday itself. But the region North of Orissa coast would continue to get heavy rains.

After Wednesday 16th,, some model forecasts show the Northern most point on the west coast( read Gujarat), upto Mumbai, getting drier comparitivly, to some extent. But, the precipitation outlook from NCEP and FNMOC suggest  the west coast as a whole would receive fiarly good amounts of rainfall during the week ending June 20.
Resultantly, we should see the entire peninsula and the southern parts Gujarat and M.P. covered by the monsoon during this period.

Mumbai Colaba had recieved 30mms of rain upto 08.30 hrs on Monday. As per my forecast put up yesterday (13th.), the city should see an increase in rain from evening onwards,peaking tomorrow.
From Friday 18th, Mumbai may see the rainfall intensity diminishing, maybe to around 15-20mms /day.

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anant said...

IMD update
An upper air east-west trough at 0.9 km above mean sea level runs from Ajmer, Guna, Daltonganj, Bhagalpur, Guwahati, and Dibrugarh with embedded an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood in lower levels.

I dont think this is typical monsoon trough or low that will direct flows into the gangetic plain

Need your thoughts ?

Rajesh said...

The upper air trough is also accompanied by a se level trough almost in the same line. If you see the MSLP, it is there. It is almost following the "rules" of a monsoon trough,as the winds are easterly above it, and westerly, though weak, below.
These are my thoughts, and not an expert opinion, as i have still to learn a lot on this.

anant said...

Thanks for the note. i always thought a low precedes the trough. This is a significant development. This should jump start the monsoon into the plains, will closely watch you blog on its progress.

Anonymous said...

Am 300 kms from Mumbai in Ahmednagar district, it's raining constantly here since the last 2 days. Not seen so much rain this side in many years.

Your analysis on Mumbai is spot on, so what happens now from tomorrow onwards?

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