Thursday, June 10, 2010

If we have a look at the rain fall distribution map of 10th. morning (IMD), we see some fairly good amounts of rain in Kerala and the North-East on Wednesday.The NRL rain accumalation map for the day of 10th. June shows some rainfall in South Konkan and Goa, and some parts of coastal Gujarat.
What I am coming to is still there is very sparse rainfall north of the Karnataka coast. I would justify an advance (of the Monsoon) North of Karnataka  only after the predicted Low comes into effect off the Goa coast.
 






The formation of a trough off the Goa coast (see map), still in the initial stage seen as an upper air low,and forming, may have inspired the announcement of the advance into South Konkan. In the MSLP map, a weak ridge is still visible in the Arabian Sea. (The reason for the North-West winds). This needs to be eliminated, to ensure a full fledged monsoon along the west coast, and for further progress into the interiors thence.
Progress in the sequence forecasted in yesterday's blog: The low in the Bay seems to be creeping inland, and is now a "pulse", which is expected to track westwards through Karnataka. All pieces must fall in place and the low must re-emerge in the Arabian Sea for the monsoon to move north from Monday as estimated.
Shall keep this space updated on the progress.
 
Hottest in Asia: Dammam Airport (Saudi Arabia)       47c
Hottest in Sub-Continent: Jacobabad (Pakistan):      44c
Hottest in India: Akola (Maharashtra) ;                        45.4c
Hottest Night: Chandrapur (Maharashtra):                 32.8c


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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

The IMD has announced the arrival of Monsoon in Mumbai as of today in it's mid-day bulletin. The Northern limit of Monsoon is at 19 degrees North as of today

anant said...

latest IMD press release says
Large scale features
1) MJO forecast from statistical models are not indicating better MJO phase for
next 10 days. However, the dynamical models are indicating favourable MJO
conditions.
2) OLR anomaly forecast indicates enhanced convection over the Bay of Bengal
during the next two week.

Is it in line with other forecast, we have conflicting reports on MJO phase since June 5, any new information that you could share

rajesh said...

Anant, Ihave been sceptical about the MJO since last week. In my blog dated 4th. June, I have mentioned this. BTW, if ypu see today's 12th. satellite image, the off shore trough seems to have formed along the west coast.
Thanks for the update, and please be free to share any latest information.

Anonymous said...

BMC yesterday night forecasted very heavy rains in Mumbai. There was 'Breaking News' about this on TV news channels yesterday night. The warning is for 48 hours. What's happening?

rajesh said...

A reader writes in the comments "Whats happenning"?In what sense? I mean there was no forecast for heavy rains ever forecasted on Saturday (except in the media), and from their sources. I have maitained that the monsoon over Mumbai will be from Monday..in my blogof 10th. And the forecast for Saturday: I copy /paste from the 10th. blog:"Mumbai Forecast: Cloudy and passing showers, with the same hit and miss showers continuing in parts of the city till Saturday".

rajesh said...

Sorry, check forecast of 9th. not 10th, wrongly mentioned date in my reply to a reader.