Thursday, June 03, 2010

Update on "Phet"
This is one cyclone that keeps us guessing ! Latest surprises? Position as on 3rd.June 6.00 am and satellite image as on 3rd. June 11.0 am both IST.
1.It continues to track North-West even now, and moved on to 18.6N 59.4E.
2.It is 300 NM South of Muscat. 
3. It has weakened a bit. From 929 mb to 937 mb, and winds from 125 Knots to 115 knots.
4. And slowed its movement from 6 knots to 3 knots.
5. The cyclone is so "slow" and Lethargic", that the W.D. which was supposed to have steered it to the East, has already reached North India, and is precipitating rain over Kashmir and H.P. today !

Masirah reports winds of 20 Knts, and the cyclone is 115 NM away.
But, as mentioned, still maintaining a North-West track,will enter the North-East coast of Oman around evening of 3rd.June,and re-emerge in the Sea.
My doubt. Will it, after entering the Arabian Sea again, reach upto Gujarat coast ?? Or dissipitate before that??

Doubts and questions are constantly raised over the Monsoon behavior now, after "Phet". Let us understand, that a bit of re-organisation and re-grouping is now required in the Arabian Sea. "Phet" has messed up the flow !
Since "Phet" is now far and "out of reach" of the South Kerala coast, a bit of organised formation seems to have started. But, I feel, proper south-westerly cross flow will start once the influence of "Phet" is done with in the Arabian Sea. Say after Monday, 7th. June. 
And with the help and boosting of a MJO, which is estimated to show up in our region around the 10th. of June,we could see a fast picking up of the Monsoon current thence.

With all activity and action in the western side, the eastern branch, the east entire east coast will remain practically dry till the 10th. at least. No system popping up, the rains will be restricted to the North Eastern states this week.

Mumbai: The pre monsoon thundershowers have started, but will remain weak and scattered till Sunday.
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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The cyclones on either side of the country have definetly sucked up a lot of energy and moisture and hence will have an effect on the Indian Monsoon. However the effect post 2-3 weeks period remains to be seen. The Depressions / lows in the Bay are very critical for the monsoon's progress and performance. Last year there were very few and hence the 'failed' Monsoon. Let us see how things look this year.

Commander Snehal said...

I feel it is too far west to re-emerge and cause any sustainable concern